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Friday, December 26, 2014
HAVE AN ENCHANTING WEEKEND
ANALYZING CHART PATTERNS: DOUBLE BOTTOM
Double Bottom
This is the opposite chart pattern of the double top as
it signals a reversal of the downtrend into an uptrend. This pattern will
closely resemble the shape of a "W".
Double-bottom pattern
The double bottom is formed when a downtrend sets a new
low in the price movement. This downward move will find support, which prevents
the security from moving lower. Upon finding support, the security will rally
to a new high, which forms the security's resistance point. The next stage of
this pattern is another sell-off that takes the security down to the previous
low. These two support tests form the two bottoms in the chart pattern. But
again, the security finds support and heads back up. The pattern is confirmed
when the price moves above the resistance the security faced on the prior move
up.
Remember that the security needs to break through the
support line to signal a reversal in the downward trend and should be done on
higher volume. As in the double top, do not be surprised if the price returns
to the breakout point to test the new support level in the upward trend.
Price Objective and Adjustments
It's important to get an idea as to the size of the
resulting move once the signal has been formed. In both the double top and
double bottom, the initial price objective can be measured by taking the price
distance between the support and resistance levels or the range that chart
pattern trades.
Often in technical analysis and chart patterns, we're
presented with an ideal chart setup; but in reality the pattern doesn't always
look as perfect as it's supposed to. In double tops and double bottoms one
thing to remember is that the price on the second test does not always need to
reach the same distance as the first test.
Another problem that can occur is the second testing
point, where the top or bottom actually breaks the level that the first top or
bottom test created. If this occurs, it can give a signal that the previous
trend will continue - instead of reverse - as the pattern suggests. However,
don't be too quick to abandon the pattern as it could still materialize.
If the price does, in fact, move above the prior test,
look to see if the move was accompanied by large volume, suggesting a trend
continuation. For example, if on the second test of a double bottom the price
falls below the support line on heavy volume, it is a good sign the downward
trend will continue and not reverse. If the volume is very weak, it could just
be a last attempt to continue the downward trend, but the trend will ultimately
reverse.
The double tops and double bottoms are strong reversal
patterns that can provide trading opportunities. But it is important to be
careful with these patterns as the price can often move either way.
Consequently, it's important that the trade is implemented once the
support/resistance line is broken.
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
NIFTY FUTURES UPDATE (DEC 26)
On Wednesday, as perfectly predicted early market hours
Nifty Futures after having traded below our mentioned
level of 8272 for 30 minutes, within few minutes reached the downside target of
8224 and even more to fill the (first downside)
GAP @ 8180
BEWARE of three more gaps pending below the current levels
One @ 8060; Second @ 7947 and the third @ 7818)
Each & every day we have been warning this..!
(Day before) yesterday one GAP was filled.
Below all these there exists another gap @ 7612
Today if opened & trades above 8184 for 30
minutes
It would hit 8213
And above 8217 it
should sustain atleast for 30 minutes
to have an hike upto 8237-44
Otherwise in a normal opening if opens & trades below
8193 for 30 minutes and cuts 8183 see a slide upto 8165 - 48
INTRADAY RESISTANCES @ 8218 – 8238-45
INTRADAY SUPPORTS @ 8165 – 47
Trade very carefully with the above mentioned time and levels.
ALL THE VERY BEST
(By the time this post was updated
S&P CNX Nifty Futures was trading @ 8292 )
DISCLAIMER
THE RECOMMENDATIONS MADE HERE DO NOT CONSTITUTE AND OFFER TO SELL OF A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY OF THE SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OF ANY OTHER INSTRUMENTS WHATSOEVER MENTIONED. NO REPRESENTATIONS CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED WILL BE PROFITABLE OF THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. READERS USING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS. SURFING OR USING ‘tradersharmony.blogspot.com' DEEMS THAT THE SURFER ACCEPTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THE DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES.THE INFORMATION PUBLISHED ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIVE PURPOSE ONLY AND THE USER/READERS SHOULD TAKE ADVICE OF HIS/HER ADVISER BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION FOR BUYING, SELLING OR OTHERWISE DEALING WITH SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OR ANY OTHER INSTRUMENT WHATSOEVER.
HAVE A FANTABULOUS WEDNESDAY
ANALYZING CHART PATTERNS: DOUBLE TOP
The double top and double bottom are another pair of
well-known chart patterns whose names don't leave much to the imagination.
These two reversal patterns illustrate a security's attempt to continue an
existing trend. Upon several attempts to move higher, the trend is reversed and
a new trend begins. These chart patterns formed will often resemble what looks
like a "W" (for a double bottom) or an "M" (double top).
Double Top
The double-top pattern is found at the peaks of an
upward trend and is a clear signal that the preceding upward trend is weakening
and that buyers are losing interest. Upon completion of this pattern, the trend
is considered to be reversed and the security is expected to move lower.
The first stage of this pattern is the creation of a new
high during the upward trend, which, after peaking, faces resistance and sells
off to a level of support. The next stage of this pattern will see the price
start to move back towards the level of resistance found in the previous
run-up, which again sells off back to the support level. The pattern is
completed when the security falls below (or breaks down) the support level that
had backstopped each move the security made, thus marking the beginnings of a
downward trend.
Figure : Double-top pattern
It's important to note that the price does not need to
touch the level of resistance but should be close to the prior peak. Also, when
using this chart pattern one should wait for the price to break below the key
level of support before entering. Trading before the signal is formed can yield
disastrous results, as the pattern is only setting up the possibility for the
trend reversal and could trade within this banded range for some time without
falling through.
This pattern is a clear illustration of a battle between
buyers and sellers. The buyers are attempting to push the security but are
facing resistance, which prevents the continuation of the upward trend. After
this goes on a couple of times, the buyers in the market start to give up or
dry up, and the sellers start to take a stranglehold of the security, sending
it down into a new downtrend.
Again, volume should be an important focus as one should
look for an increase in volume when the security falls below the support level.
Also, as in other chart patterns, do not be alarmed if there is a return to the
previous support level that has now become a resistance level in the newly
established trend.
NIFTY FUTURES UPDATE (DEC 24)
Yesterday, as predicted early market hours
Nifty Futures after having traded above our mentioned
levels almost reached the upper side target and even below the levels it has reached the downside targets exactly.
Now BEWARE of four more gaps pending
below the current
levels
One @ 8180; Second @ 8060; Third @ 7947
and the fourth @ 7814)
Today if opened & trades above 8274 for 30 minutes
No problem to hit 8295
And above 8299 it
should sustain atleast for 30 minutes
to have an hike upto 8315-25
Otherwise in a normal opening if opens & trades below
8272 for 30 minutes see a slide upto 8243
- 24
And see
even more slide after that!
INTRADAY RESISTANCES @ 8299 – 8326
INTRADAY SUPPORTS @ 8242 – 22
Trade very carefully with the above mentioned time and levels.
ALL THE VERY BEST
(By the time this post was updated
S&P CNX Nifty Futures was trading @ 8346)
DISCLAIMER
THE RECOMMENDATIONS MADE HERE DO NOT CONSTITUTE AND OFFER TO SELL OF A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY OF THE SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OF ANY OTHER INSTRUMENTS WHATSOEVER MENTIONED. NO REPRESENTATIONS CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED WILL BE PROFITABLE OF THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. READERS USING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS. SURFING OR USING ‘tradersharmony.blogspot.com' DEEMS THAT THE SURFER ACCEPTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THE DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES.THE INFORMATION PUBLISHED ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIVE PURPOSE ONLY AND THE USER/READERS SHOULD TAKE ADVICE OF HIS/HER ADVISER BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION FOR BUYING, SELLING OR OTHERWISE DEALING WITH SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OR ANY OTHER INSTRUMENT WHATSOEVER.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY
INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS (HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS BOTTOM)
The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is the exact
opposite of the head-and-shoulders top, as it signals that the security is set
to make an upward move. Often coming at the end of a downtrend, the inverse
head and shoulders is considered to be a reversal pattern, as the security
typically heads higher after the completion of the pattern.
Again, there are four steps to this pattern, starting
with the formation of the left shoulder, which occurs when the price falls to a
new low and rallies to a high. The formation of the head, which is the second
step, occurs when the price moves to a low that is below the previous low,
followed by a return to the previous high. This move back to the previous high creates
the neckline for this chart pattern. The third step is the formation of the
right shoulder, which sees a sell-off, but to a low that is higher than the
previous one, followed by a return to the neckline. The pattern is complete
when the price breaks above the neckline.
As seen from the above, the head-and-shoulders pattern
is complete when the neckline is broken; the trend is then considered reversed,
and the security should be heading in a new direction. The point of breakout is
when most traders following the pattern would enter the security.
However, the security will not always just continue in
the direction suggested by the pattern after the breakout. For this reason it's
important to be aware of what is known as a "throwback" move. This
situation occurs when the price breaks through the neckline, setting a new high
or low (depending on the pattern), followed by a retreat back to the neckline.
This move back to the neckline is considered to be a
test of the pattern and the newly reversed support or resistance. Remember that
when a trend shifts (or a reversal pattern is confirmed), what was once support
now become resistance, and vice versa. In the case of an inverse
head-and-shoulders pattern (as shown in the chart above), the neckline
represented a level of resistance for the security before it broke out. Upon
the security moving above the neckline to confirm the pattern, the restrictive
neckline becomes support for any move back up.
While it can be alarming to see a security move in the
opposite direction of the trend suggested by the pattern, it isn't all that
bad. The reason being that the successful test of this new level of support or
resistance helps to strengthen the pattern and its suggested new direction. So,
it's important to wait for the pattern to test out and not sell out too quickly
- before the pattern makes its bigger moves.
Volume
In technical analysis and chart-pattern analysis, volume
plays an important role as it is used as a secondary indicator. Volume
indicates activity and money movement. When volume is high, there is a lot of
activity and money changing hands - making it an important indicator to follow.
For the head-and-shoulders pattern, volume is used
mainly at the point of breakout to help confirm the pattern. At this point,
it's important that the breakout happens on a large-volume move. For a
head-and-shoulders top, when the price breaks below the neckline (in a downward
direction), it's best when this occurs during a large volume increase, which
signals heavy selling. This strongly indicates that the underlying supply and
demand in the market is moving in the same direction the chart pattern is
predicting.
Volume can also be used as a secondary indicator during
the formation of the pattern, well before the breakout, to gain an idea of the
pattern's strength.
For a head-and-shoulders top, the left shoulder should
show heavy volume as it hits its new peak. Low volume should take the left
shoulder down to the neckline. The run towards the peak in the head should be
on lighter volume compared to the peak formed in the left shoulder.
This should be a warning, as volume should move with
trends - not against them. The peak formed in the right shoulder should be seen
with even lighter volume than in either the head or the left shoulder. And
again, the volume should be high when the neckline is broken, which is by far
the most important area to watch in terms of volume. If the volume is lighter
on the neckline break, the chances of the price moving back to the neckline
after breaking is greater than if the neckline break was accompanied by large
volume.
This interaction of volume and price movement in forming
the reversal signal is not set in stone. However, it is the general tendency in
the chart pattern.
Slope of the Neckline
Another key factor in the head-and-shoulders pattern is
the formation of the neckline. The reason being that the neckline acts as
support or resistance during the formation of the pattern, along with being the
entry point at which the pattern confirms itself.
In most of the above examples, the neckline is flat, but
this need not be the case for the pattern to provide a potential trade. In most
cases, the neckline will in fact be slanted either up or down. In general, a
technically strong head-and-shoulders top should have a flat or slightly
upward-trending neckline. For a head-and-shoulders bottom, it should be flat or
slightly downward
Price Objective
An important, but often overlooked, factor in technical
analysis and chart patterns is the calculation of price objectives. This is a
measure of where the price is considered to be headed, based on a confirmed
pattern.
While the price's direction is already known, based on
the signal, what needs to be calculated is the projected price movement. This
is done so that targets can be set, protective stops can be instituted and the
worth of a trade can be evaluated.
This is measured based on the height of the chart
pattern, which is essentially the distance in price between the peak of the
head and the neckline.
This price objective is not an absolute and is used as a
guideline to the attractiveness of a trade. The larger the difference between
the objective and the price at the neckline, the more worth the trade has, as
it will yield greater returns.
NIFTY FUTURES UPDATES & TODAY'S FUNDAMENTALS (DEC 23)
Yesterday, perfectly as predicted early market hours
Nifty Futures made a GAP UP opening and after having
traded above our mentioned level of 8249 for 30 minutes it perfectly reached
our target of 8270-90 and went even beyond
that to have a close @ 8340
Now BEWARE of four more gaps
pending
below the current levels
One @ 8179; Second @ 8060; Third @ 7947 and the
fourth @ 7814)
If opened & trades above 8337 for 15
minutes
No problem to hit 8350
And above 8351 it
should sustain atleast for 30 minutes
to have an hike upto 8379-89
Otherwise in a normal opening if opens & trades below
8331 for 30 minutes see a slide upto 8305
And below 8304 for 30 more minutes leads
Nifty Futures
to 8280 – 60
INTRADAY RESISTANCES @ 8350 – 85 – 95
INTRADAY SUPPORTS @ 8303 – 8278 – 58
Trade very carefully with the above mentioned time and levels.
ALL THE VERY BEST
(By the time this post was updated
S&P CNX
Nifty Futures was trading @ 8425)
இன்றைய சந்தை அடிப்படை (DEC 23)
இந்தியநேரப்படி இன்று
பிற்பகல்
3:00 மணிக்கு வெளியாகும் காலாண்டு மற்றும் வருடாந்திர GDP தகவல்கள் டாலருக்கு
எதிரான கிரேட் பிரிட்டன் பவுண்டை நேரடி பாதிப்புக்குள்ளாக்கும்.
மாலை 7:00 மணிக்கு வெளியாகும் மாதாந்திர
Core Durable Goods Orders மற்றும் கனடிய GDP (MoM) தகவல்கள் முறையே அமெரிக்க
டாலர் குறியீட்டையும் கனடிய டாலரையும் நேரடியாக பாதிக்கவல்லது!
இரவு 8:30 க்கு வெளியாகும் அமெரிக்க
நாட்டின் மாதாந்திர புதிய வீட்டு விற்பனை மற்றும் தனிநபர் செலவுகள் குறித்த
தகவல்களும் டாலர் நகர்வில் குறிப்பிடத்தகுந்த பாதிப்புகளைக் கொண்டு
வருமெனத்
தெரிகிறது!
ஆக இன்று கச்சா எண்ணெய், தங்கம், வெள்ளி, காப்பர்,
நிக்கல்
மற்றும் இயற்கை எரிவாயு (Natural Gas)
போன்ற கமாடிட்டிகளில் கவனமாக இருக்க வேண்டிய நேரம்...
2:55 – 3:30 PM;
7:00 – 7:30 PM; 8:25 – 9:00 PM
வெல்க அன்பு நெஞ்சங்களே!
DISCLAIMER
THE RECOMMENDATIONS MADE HERE DO NOT CONSTITUTE AND OFFER TO SELL OF A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY OF THE SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OF ANY OTHER INSTRUMENTS WHATSOEVER MENTIONED. NO REPRESENTATIONS CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED WILL BE PROFITABLE OF THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. READERS USING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS. SURFING OR USING ‘tradersharmony.blogspot.com' DEEMS THAT THE SURFER ACCEPTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THE DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES.THE INFORMATION PUBLISHED ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIVE PURPOSE ONLY AND THE USER/READERS SHOULD TAKE ADVICE OF HIS/HER ADVISER BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION FOR BUYING, SELLING OR OTHERWISE DEALING WITH SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OR ANY OTHER INSTRUMENT WHATSOEVER.
Monday, December 22, 2014
HAVE A SPECTACULAR MONDAY
ANALYZING CHART PATTERNS: HEAD AND SHOULDERS
The head-and-shoulders pattern is one of the most
popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. And as one might
imagine from the name, the pattern looks like a head with two shoulders.
Head and shoulders is a reversal pattern that, when
formed, signals the security is likely to move against the previous trend.
There are two versions of the head-and-shoulders pattern. The
head-and-shoulders top is a signal that a security's price is set to fall, once
the pattern is complete, and is usually formed at the peak of an upward trend.
The second version, the head-and-shoulders bottom (also known as inverse head
and shoulders), signals that a security's price is set to rise and usually
forms during a downward trend.
Both of these head and shoulders have a similar
construction in that there are four main parts to the head-and-shoulder chart
pattern: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. The patterns are confirmed when
the neckline is broken, after the formation of the second shoulder.
The head and shoulders are sets of peaks and troughs.
The neckline is a level of support or resistance. The head and shoulders
pattern is based on Dow Theory's peak-and-trough analysis. An upward trend, for
example, is seen as a period of successive rising peaks and rising troughs. A
downward trend, on the other hand, is a period of falling peaks and troughs.
The head-and-shoulders pattern illustrates a weakening in a trend where there
is deterioration in the peaks and troughs.
Head and Shoulders Top
Again, the head-and-shoulders top signals to chart users
that a security's price is likely to make a downward move, especially after it
breaks below the neckline of the pattern. Due to this pattern forming mostly at
the peaks of upward trends, it is considered to be a trend-reversal pattern, as
the security heads down after the pattern's completion.
This pattern has four main
steps for it to complete itself and signal the reversal. The first step is the
formation of the left shoulder, which is formed when the security reaches a new
high and retraces to a new low. The second step is the formation of the head,
which occurs when the security reaches a higher high, then retraces back near
the low formed in the left shoulder. The third step is the formation of the
right shoulder, which is formed with a high that is lower than the high formed
in the head but is again followed by a retracement back to the low of the left
shoulder. The pattern is complete once the price falls below the neckline,
which is a support line formed at the level of the lows reached at each of the
three retracements mentioned above.
NIFTY FUTURES UPDATES TODAY (DEC 22)
On Friday, perfectly as predicted early market hours
Nifty Futures made a GAP UP opening,
thereby reaching our final target,
also filled the GAP @ 8270
Now four more gaps pending below the current levels
One @ 8179; Second @ 8054; Third @ 7947 and the
fourth @ 7814)
If opened & trades above 8249 for 30
minutes
Chance to hit 8270 - 90
Suppose in a normal opening if opens & trades below
8242 for 30 minutes see a slide upto 8212
– 8190
INTRADAY RESISTANCES @ 8250 – 70 – 90
INTRADAY SUPPORTS @ 8210 – 8188
Trade very carefully with the above mentioned time and levels.
ALL THE VERY BEST
(By the time this post was updated
S&P CNX
Nifty Futures was trading @ 8340 )
DISCLAIMER
THE RECOMMENDATIONS MADE HERE DO NOT CONSTITUTE AND OFFER TO SELL OF A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY OF THE SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OF ANY OTHER INSTRUMENTS WHATSOEVER MENTIONED. NO REPRESENTATIONS CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED WILL BE PROFITABLE OF THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. READERS USING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS. SURFING OR USING ‘tradersharmony.blogspot.com' DEEMS THAT THE SURFER ACCEPTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THE DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES.THE INFORMATION PUBLISHED ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIVE PURPOSE ONLY AND THE USER/READERS SHOULD TAKE ADVICE OF HIS/HER ADVISER BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION FOR BUYING, SELLING OR OTHERWISE DEALING WITH SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OR ANY OTHER INSTRUMENT WHATSOEVER.
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