Friday, November 12, 2010

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND FOLKS


friday

FROM AN EXPERIENCE

Everyone in this business will tell you how to be and what to do,
but the bottom line is that you’ve got to always be yourself –
flaws, emotions, stupidity, and all.

There’s a saying that the stock market is an expensive
place to figure how who you really are but I completely disagree.
Through the many years I’ve been trading, I’ve learned much
more about myself and the way I am both good and bad than
I think I would have any other way. And, for that I’m so very
grateful.

It is with little doubt that my experience in the markets have in turn
made me into a much better human being. For example,
one who thinks before acting, one that appreciates the importance
of looking at situations from different points of view, one that knows
that you can do everything right but still be wrong, one that
understands the influence that emotion has on decision-making,
one that remembers that no matter what mistakes you and I make
today – tomorrow we will have another opportunity to do better.
I’ve learned a great deal more, but I think you get the point.

My goal with those who I personally mentor is to help them become
who they really are and, by extension, to take full advantage of their
own personality and skills whatever they may be and at whatever
level they currently are.

The primary problem, however, is that
many of us really believe the key to success is to be more like
others whether it be Warren Buffett, David Einhorn,
George Soros, Doug Kass, Jim Chanos, Whitney Tilson,
Jim Cramer, or whoever you admire and respect.
As you know, one of the fastest growing businesses on the
Internet right now is to enable you in new and exciting ways
to trade and invest just like others, but in my view, that will only
take you so far in your personal journey. In the markets, sooner
or later, you have to find your own path!

Each of us have our own skills, strengths, weaknesses and
personalities and matching those with a strategy you can use
and develop over time is the closest key to your future success
that I can help you with.

Bottom line – don’t be like me or anyone else for that matter,
but instead just be yourself. Use this time in your life to find ways
to take full advantage of your own God-given talents and skills as
you develop them. While it is ok and, in fact recommended,
that you try to learn as much as you can from others (I know I have),
at the same time you must also understand and appreciate that
to true key to success is to find your own path just like every trader
and investor who you so admire right now has already done.
(to be contd)



TODAY’S TRADING STRATEGY
OF NIFTY FUTURES – NOV 12

Day resistance @ 6263-73 & 6295
If trades above 6223 for 15 minutes
and cuts 6237 a rally upto 6263-72
is for sure.

On the other hand,
If trades below 6237 and cuts 6220
Watch a non-stop slide upto
6202 (there exists a good support)
but if breaks this level too bcoz of any hike in volume
in mid-session, see much more
panic selling upto 6181-6159 in Nifty Future.


BANK NIFTY
Buy btwn 12975-99
T1 – 13038-58
T2 – 13070-77-102

Sell btwn 12895-71
T1 – 12832-12
T2 – 12799-92-68



SHARE TIPS TODAY (NOV 12)

Sell SGHL @ 212
T1 – 209.10
T2 – 207.10

Sell ASIANPAINT @ 2647
T1 – 2635
T2 – 2623

Sell JETAIRWAYS @ 873
T1 – 865
T2 – 859

Sell HINDOILEXP @ 275
T1 – 273
T2 – 271



NOTE
1.THE ABOVE GIVEN TIPS
ARE APPLICABLE ONLY FOR DAY TRADERS.

2.NEVER EVER ENTER INTO A TRADE
BEFORE THE ABOVE MENTIONED LEVELS
or AFTER THE TARGETS WERE ATTAINED.

3.STOPLOSS LEVELS, REVERSE TRADING & MORE
INTRADAY TIPS IN MARKET HOURS EXCLUSIVE
FOR THE SUBSCRIBERS






AN ASTRAL VIEW OF MARKET TODAY
  • While Jupiter is in Pisces, yellow products right from turmeric to gold and topaz, may remain in the news.Apart from this, tin, food products and camphor may remain under spotlight.
    Astrology
  • Besides this, if we talk about international countries then it's Spain, Egypt, Portugal.National Kundali: Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab may hit the headlines and remain in the news.
  • During the days when the Moon is in transit wit Pisces, edible oil and vanaspati ghee may remain in the news.
  • Moon in Capricorn in the 4th charan in Uttaroshada constellation the Lord is Sun. Now, Moon is going to meet the master teacher is present in Aquarius


Disclaimer
On repeated requests of the readers this astral prediction is started.
Traders are advised to attain some technical knowledge before they get into trades anyway
-EDITOR






IRELAND RESCUE IMMINENT AS
BUND SPREADS PASS 720 Bps

news
At last check Irish-Bund spreads were north of 725 bps, meaning
Ireland is now effectively insolvent, and joins Greece in the group
of bankrupt European countries. If this blow out is not stopped
immediately, the contagion will again spread to the periphery first
and then to the core shortly thereafter. The only question is when,
just like in the case of oh so coy Greece, will Lenihan admit defeat
and ask the IMF and the ECB for help (oh, and do it so during a
Citigroup-mediated conference call). However, as Market News
reports, citing Handesblatt, the Irish rescue may be imminent,
and may come as soon as today.

From Market News:
Eurozone governments are preparing for a possible Greece-style
rescue for Ireland although the country has not yet asked for
financial assistance, German daily Handelsblatt reported Thursday,
citing German government sources.

“The rise in Irish yields are a cause for concern” which is why
Eurozone states are now examining whether Ireland needs liquidity
support from the European stability facility, the paper said.

While Ireland had not asked for help as yet, euro area
governments are preparing for the emergency contingency.
“We are ready to help Ireland on very short notice,”
one of the sources told Handelsblatt.

Irish central bank Governor Patrick Honohan warned Wednesday
that Ireland’s current sovereign borrowing costs are unsustainable.
“I’ll readily say that the current rate is well above the rate at which
one would go back in [to the markets]. It is “unsustainable and you
couldn’t imagine them going forward,” Honohan said.

The Irish government thus far has assured that it will be able to
emerge from the current crisis without drawing on help from its euro
area partners.

Earlier Thursday, Irish 10-year bond spreads widened to a
fresh all-time EMU high at +640 bps above the benchmark
German Bund.

How about at 720 bps 4 hours later? If the rate of collapse persists,
Irish debt will be trading at levels that make Burkina Faso giggle.






ARE U ADDICTED TO TRADING?


adictionThe tell-tale sign of trading addiction
is a trader who cannot refrain from
trading–even when markets are
objectively offering no opportunity.
Even when losses are mounting.










THE TRAITS OF A SUCCESSFUL TRADER

Successfull sun CatchThe most important is discipline – I am sure everyone says that. Second, you have to have patience; if you have a good trade on, you have to be able to stay with it. Third, you need courage to go into the market, and courage comes from adequate capitalization. Fourth, you must have a willingness to lose; that is also related to adequate
capitalization. Fifth, you need a strong desire to win.”
Gary Bielfeldt







DO I FEEL GOOD ABOUT MY
TRADING TODAY?
AFTER TWO HOURS OF TRADING, ASK YOURSELF:
“DO I FEEL GOOD ABOUT MY TRADING TODAY?”
Thinking Cat Once two hours
have passed,
Cook says a day
trader
should have
made at least two,
or perhaps more,
trades,“but enough
to evaluate what
you have done.”
If the trader feels good about
the day’s trading, continue.
If not, stop trading that day.








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MESSAGE TODAY

No matter what a woman looks like, if she's confident, she's sexy.
-PARIS HILTON






RELAX CORNER

Love Story
Love StoryAn elderly couple were having dinner
one evening when the
husband reached across the table,
took his wife’s hand in his and said,
“Martha, soon we will be married 50 years,
and there’s something I have to know.
In all of these 50 years, have you ever been
unfaithful to me?”

Martha replied, “Well Henry, I have to be honest with you.
Yes, I’ve been unfaithful to you three times during
these 50 years,
but always for a good reason.

Henry was obviously hurt by his wife’s confession, but said,
“I never suspected.
Can you tell me what you mean by ‘good reasons?’”

Martha said, “The first time was shortly after we were married,
and we were about to lose our little house because we couldn’t pay
the mortgage.
Do you remember that one evening I went to see the banker
and the next day he notified you that the loan would be extended?”

Henry recalled the visit to the banker and said,
“I can forgive you for that.

You saved our home, but what about the second time?”

Martha asked, “And do you remember when you were so sick,
but we didn’t have the money to pay for the heart surgery you
needed? Well, I went to see your doctor one night and, if you recall,
he did the surgery at no charge.”

“I recall that,” said Henry. “And you did it to save my life,
so of course I can forgive you for that. Now tell me about the
third time.”

“All right,” Martha said. “So do you remember when you ran
for president of your golf club, and you needed 73 more votes?”




JUST SMS TO YOUR PAL


No one loves hard work more than the one who pays for it.
I'm not into working out. My philosophy: No pain. No pain.





DEAR FRIENDS,
LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR VALUABLE FEEDBACK
FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SITE.






DISCLAIMER
THE RECOMMENDATIONS MADE HERE DO NOT CONSTITUTE AND OFFER TO SELL OF A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY OF THE SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OF ANY OTHER INSTRUMENTS WHATSOEVER MENTIONED. NO REPRESENTATIONS CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED WILL BE PROFITABLE OF THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. READERS USING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS. SURFING OR USING ‘tradersharmony.blogspot.com' DEEMS THAT THE SURFER ACCEPTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THE DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES.THE INFORMATION PUBLISHED ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIVE PURPOSE ONLY AND THE USER/READERS SHOULD TAKE ADVICE OF HIS/HER ADVISER BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION FOR BUYING, SELLING OR OTHERWISE DEALING WITH SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OR ANY OTHER INSTRUMENT WHATSOEVER.







Thursday, November 11, 2010

THIRSTY THURSDAY


THIRSTY THURSDAY

FROM AN EXPERIENCE

1. Never Get Carried Away With Yourself.
“The basic idea is that one should remain impervious to the illusions and trappings of wealth, as they often lead one to become carried away to the point where excess of one sort or another ultimately leads to one’s demise” (265).

2. Never Operate From a Position of Fear.
“If you are fearful in the markets, either as a result of taking a recent loss or some other mistake, or even as a result of being nervous about the level of risk you are taking, then you are putting yourself in the position of making and unclear and hence incorrect decision” (265).

3. You Learn More From Your Enemies Than You Do From Your Friends.
Make sure you take the criticism’s of others and use them to your advantage by recognizing that the more others criticize the more you value your own beliefs, trading or otherwise.

4. Never Stop Learning and Improving.
Always focus your mistakes and searching for ways to correct them. That way you will not be as tempted to make the same mistake again.

5. Never Talk About Your Stocks.
This is purely an ego taming exercise. While I personally believe it is ok to discuss technical analysis and stocks that may be on a watchlist there is really no benefit in bragging about success and hiding your failures. It is ok to be wrong.

6. Don’t Get Giddy at the Top.
Bigger charts (such as the WEEKLY) are the best barameters for giddiness. By watching over extended big charts, the trader’s emotions can be better managed thereby avoiding jumping on the caboose as the train is set to take a break from its recent trip.

7.Use Weekly Charts First, Daily Second, and Ignore Intra-day Charts.
No need to focus on the noise at the expense of listening to the still, small voice of Mr Market.

8. Find The Big Stock.
Look for stocks under accumulation and then begin buying in preparation for distribution.

9. Be Careful Who You Get Into Bed With.
Although not a trading rule per se, keeping good, solid company outside the charts, can help you be the best trader inside the charts. “Trust and integrity between two people are the most important variables in life and in business” (269).

10. Always Maintain Insane Focus.
Focus “is what makes life worth living, and by relentlessly pursuing our passions we attain the state of insane focus that in turn drives high levels of success” (269).

- O'NEIL

No matter what you think of O’Neil and his trading strategy, one thing is for certain. His commandments are applicable to all of us both in and outside the charts.




TODAY’S TRADING STRATEGY
OF NIFTY FUTURES – NOV 11
Day Support @ 6310
If trades above 6310 for 15 minutes a small travel upto 6317-20-32-40-52

Traders pls notice…
In normal opening Nifty Futures has its resistance
at all above mentioned levels in today’s session.

If 6352 too crossed with volumes
watch a non-stop rally upto 6375
& there after upto 6399

On the other side,
If trades below 6310 and cuts 6295
A slide upto 6273 is possible-
there exists the 2nd support for Nifty Futures

Get into the levels properly and trade
with good concentration.


BANK NIFTY
Buy btwn 13131-55
T1 – 13195-215
T2 – 13227-35-59

Sell btwn 13051-26
T1 – 12987-67
T2 – 12955-478-23


SHARE TIPS TODAY (NOV 11)

Sell GLAXO @ 2254
T1 – 2244
T2 – 2234

Sell CANBK @ 820.95
T1 – 812.95
T2 – 804.95


NOTE
1.THE ABOVE GIVEN TIPS ARE APPLICABLE
ONLY FOR DAY TRADERS.

2.NEVER EVER ENTER INTO A TRADE
BEFORE THE ABOVE MENTIONED LEVELS
or
AFTER THE TARGETS WERE ATTAINED.





AstrologyAN ASTRAL VIEW OF MARKET TODAY

  • During Jupiter will be in Pisces, financial institute, Education, Trust, Religious Trust, Charitable institutions, NGOs, airlines, paper Midia, sugar, imported - export, Medicine, formation medicine, Marine, fishre Shers, will be in news.
  • Today's moon in the constellation of Sagittarius Puarwashado the lord is Venus. moon and Rahu being in different Navmansh, but each other in the center because the moon is in Scorpio and Rahu Cancer Navmansh
  • Today and tomorrow, the pre-opening market may seem downwards; however, actually that is not be true.

Disclaimer
On repeated requests of the readers this astral prediction is started.
Traders are advised to attain some technical knowledge before they get into trades anyway
-EDITOR






THE BEST TIME FOR A TRADE...?
Mr Disagreeable
If you think about it, it makes sense – the very best time to buy something is when everyone is convinced that the price is going to fall lower, and the very best time to sell something is when everyone is convinced the price is going to shoot to the moon. Just learn the importance of trading against the crowd. The crowd is reacting to the market, and you learn to react to the crowd, this simple change in mindset can produce incredible profits if you are willing to look like a fool (in the eyes of others).








RISK

“Ancient man had no risk management.
Everything was left to ‘fate’ and the whims of the gods. Because
ancient man felt that he was merely a victim of circumstance he
did not see a need to plan for the future.
RiskTherefore, he had no future.
In his book Against The Gods:
The Remarkable Story Of Risk,
Peter Bernstein plots out the
history of man’s
discovery of the law
of probabilities and
risk management.
Suffice it to say,
economic progress seems to run
parallel with man’s ability to discover,
quantify, and manage risk. Risk and reward are two sides
of the same coin. One is not present without the other.
You cannot receive the reward
unless you are willing to take the risk and you cannot expect
to keep that reward unless you learn to mange that risk.
It is imperative to master both subjects if you expect to be
successful in any endeavor,especially the arena of investing/trading.”





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MESSAGE TODAY

What’s the worst thing that can happen to a quarterback? He loses his confidence.
-TERRY BRADSHAW



RELAX CORNER


BANKERS NEVER LEARN
chimp,laugh,GIF

The reason for the Recession — simplified.
A naked and drunken woman boards a cab in
London one night.
The Gujju driver keeps staring
and does not start the cab.
Woman : Haven’t you ever seen
a naked woman before ???
Gujju Driver : I am not staring at you lady ….. just wondering where you kept money to pay !!

The Moral : That is what most of the American
and European banks failed to do.
(i.e.) Assessing repayment capacity before taking
exposure !!!

Long live Gujju enterprise…





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*What do I miss about my wife? Her absence.

*Some people live because it is illegal to kill them!



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LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR VALUABLE FEEDBACK
FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SITE.







DISCLAIMER
THE RECOMMENDATIONS MADE HERE DO NOT CONSTITUTE AND OFFER TO SELL OF A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY OF THE SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OF ANY OTHER INSTRUMENTS WHATSOEVER MENTIONED. NO REPRESENTATIONS CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED WILL BE PROFITABLE OF THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. READERS USING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS. SURFING OR USING ‘tradersharmony.blogspot.com' DEEMS THAT THE SURFER ACCEPTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THE DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES.THE INFORMATION PUBLISHED ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIVE PURPOSE ONLY AND THE USER/READERS SHOULD TAKE ADVICE OF HIS/HER ADVISER BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION FOR BUYING, SELLING OR OTHERWISE DEALING WITH SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OR ANY OTHER INSTRUMENT WHATSOEVER.




Wednesday, November 10, 2010

HAPPY TOASTA WEDNESDAY

Wed Comments





FROM AN EXPERIENCE

Play to win, not for a score. Traders who desire only to
make money versus simply trying to trade well and their
best ability will struggle. This is a money-focused game,
but trading well requires you to focus on goals beyond the
money to achieve the performance you really desire.

Take your eyes off the prize. Hunter explains that the “score
would happen if we focused on the process.” Too many traders
are only focused on the daily profit and loss statement
instead of focusing on improving the methods that produce
those profits and losses. Consistent, steady improvement
can only be gained after a trader commits to a full
understanding of the process of trading well.

Recognize a real gamble. When you are trading well, take
the possibility of a major loss out of the equation whenever
you can. It is true, when we are the most vulnerable is when
everything is going right and it seems like we can do no
wrong. Moreover, there are times to make the big aggressive
trade, and times when doing so is foolhardy. Recognizing
the difference is so very important.


There are a couple of professors in Ohio, who studied
any stock that Warren Buffett bought, if you bought on the
last day of the month, when it was public that he owned that
stock, and you sold it after it was public that he had started
selling it, you would have generated north of 20% annual rate
of return.
I would say that we will never see another Warren Buffett.
Just like we will never see any Albert Einstein or another
Mahatma Gandhi. Buffett is a very unique individual.
His skillsets outside of investment are phenomenal but they
get dwarfed by his investing skills. The main thing that
makes Warren Buffett Warren Buffett is that he is a
learning machine who has worked really hard for, let’s us say
seventy years, and is continuously learning every day.
So the thing is if you want to be like Buffett, there is no short cut.
First of all, you have to be deeply interested in investing and you
have to be very willing spending tens of hours, hundreds
of hours, reading the minutiae. There is a very famous value
investor called Seth Klarman. He is into horse racing. And his
famous horse is called Read the Footnotes.”
(to be contd)




TODAY’S TRADING STRATEGY
OF NIFTY FUTURES – NOV 10
Day Support exists @ 6310
Above 6317 no problem zone for Bulls
If trades above this level and cuts 6353
Non-stop rally upto 6372-6395 seen on charts
Heavy Buying started all over
NEW HIGHS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE
WITHIN FEW DAYS


BANK NIFTY
Buy btwn 13237-63
T1 – 13303-23
T2 – 13336-44-69

Sell btwn 13155-29
T1 – 13089-69
T2 – 13056-48-23




SHARE TIPS TODAY-NOV 10

Sell Uniphos @ 206.30
T1 – 204.30 - 203.75

Sell CorpBank @ 783
T1 – 776-774



NOTE
1.THE ABOVE GIVEN TIPS ARE APPLICABLE ONLY FOR DAY TRADERS.

2.NEVER EVER ENTER INTO A TRADE
BEFORE THE ABOVE MENTIONED LEVELS
or
AFTER THE TARGETS WERE ATTAINED.





AN ASTRAL VIEW OF MARKET TODAY
Sun
  • Overall, Nifty will remain in a particular range and do time-pass around the psychological figure. New position may not yield benefits.
  • Puarwashado constellation Sagittarius moon today in the first phase Moon cross Rahu so may hover around the surface or on the upper side.
  • There may be a small correction at 10:24, 11:15, 11:50 and there may be a high jump at 11:30; Be cautious says the astrologer.


Disclaimer
On repeated requests of the readers this astral prediction is started.
Traders are advised to attain some technical knowledge before they get into trades anyway
-EDITOR





WHAT'S WORTH READING?

worth softballs 1 reading
“The mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero.”
-Louis Bachelier
was a French mathematician who was, well after the fact, credited with
founding the Efficient Market Thesis. In 1900 Bachelier published his Ph.D
thesis titled “The Theory of Speculation.” In his paper, Bachelier
discussed the use of Brownian motion to evaluate stock prices.
Unfortunately, his thesis was “not appropriately received”,
which resulted in academic black-balling and the concept
being buried for more than sixty years.

Almost sixty-five years later Professor Eugene Fama
from theUniversity of Chicago was officially credited
with developing the Efficient Market
Thesis after publishing his Ph.D thesis. His paper was titled
“The Behavior of Stock Market Prices.” The core tenet of his paper
and the Efficient Market Thesis is that an investor
“cannot consistently achieve returns in excess
of average of market returns on a
risk-adjustedbasis, given the information that is
publicly available at the time the
investment is made.”

Is it not somewhat ironic that the determination
of who founded the
Efficient Market Thesis was not efficient?”






WHENEVER YOU HAVE TIME READ
THIS AGAIN & AGAIN










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MESSAGE TODAY

If you only believe when it's easy, you don't really believe.
-LAURELL K. HAMILTON, Obsidian Butterfly


RELAX CORNER

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DISCLAIMER
THE RECOMMENDATIONS MADE HERE DO NOT CONSTITUTE AND OFFER TO SELL OF A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY OF THE SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OF ANY OTHER INSTRUMENTS WHATSOEVER MENTIONED. NO REPRESENTATIONS CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED WILL BE PROFITABLE OF THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. READERS USING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS. SURFING OR USING ‘tradersharmony.blogspot.com' DEEMS THAT THE SURFER ACCEPTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THE DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES.THE INFORMATION PUBLISHED ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIVE PURPOSE ONLY AND THE USER/READERS SHOULD TAKE ADVICE OF HIS/HER ADVISER BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION FOR BUYING, SELLING OR OTHERWISE DEALING WITH SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OR ANY OTHER INSTRUMENT WHATSOEVER.






Tuesday, November 09, 2010

SOUPY TUESDAY


FROM AN EXPERIENCE

Taking advantage of potential major winning trades
is not only important to the mental
health of the trader but is also critical to winning.
Letting winners ride is every bit as important as cutting losses short.
If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers.
In addition to not over-trading, it is important to commit to an exit point on every trade. Protective stops are very important because they
force this commitment on the trader.
I often talk about the Battle Of Waterloo and how it relates
to trading in general and specifically strategy development.
If you don’t know the battle
(which I recommend reading about if you have time),
just listen to this once popular country song
and you’ll get a sense
to why I think this is so important.
While I’m no historian, I do think traders can learn
a lot about trading through learning about important
battles in history.
The Battle Of Waterloo offers a great example
as it offers many lessons for us to consider:

Make your planning and risk analysis commensurate with
the size of your project.
For major endeavors, contingency plans are critical.

Know when to cut your losses if necessary. Don’t let your
desire to succeed be the enemy of good judgment.

Be sure that the justification is clear for your project,
and that your entire team is sold.

Don’t become over-confident, especially after many successes.
Remember the basic principles.

Never attempt an unpopular endeavor in isolation.

Don’t make enemies. You are only as good as your allies.

Adopt leader style politics, not the Machiavellian style.
Look for the win-win.

Many of these lessons apply to good trading,
especially the ones
about the importance of having contingency plans,
knowing whento cut losses, having clear
justifications for your trades, the
importance of avoiding overconfidence and finally
how important
it is to attack from a strong position like having plenty of capital
and cash reserves.
Needless to say, every trading strategy has their own weaknesses.
So, what the most common weakness I’ve found? That’s easy –
human error. That’s right, usually most strategies that have been
backtested and proven to work continue to work well unless we do
things to either deviate from the plan and/or we apply leverage to it
rendering it extremely vulnerable. It is fairly often that I see traders
come forward with a hot strategy they’ve used and are in the process
of levering it up, creating havoc and exposing themselves to great
risk. There is good reason for the expression – leverage always kills.
In my experience, that has been true.
Beyond that, many strategies
are based on things that don’t account for the constantly
evolving nature of the market.
In sum, every strategy you employ needs to also have a list of
“warning signs” that will indicate whether you are facing a
Waterloo-like defeat. You can rest assure those in charge of the
quant trading systems have this in place already on Wall Street.
From my experience knowing and working closely with others
who do that for a living, they all have checklists every day that
tell them whether the system is
“operating within normal parameters.
” When the performance falls outside of that, the quants
know know to put the brakes on.
Do you do the same thing with your own
strategies? If so, then do you have a system in place to know
when you should put your trading on hold?
While you can show me all kinds of stats on how good a system
may be, but what I want to know is what will cause all of those
performance figures not to hold up in the real world. Bottom line
you must ask yourself what could happen potentially to cause the
strategy not to work or cause you a significant loss? Sometimes
that’s not possible to know especially when evaluating a new
strategy, but just having some suspicions when working with a
new strategy can often prove to be a true asset.
So, how do you learn its weaknesses? Backtesting can help,
but what I call forward testing helps even more. In my opinion,
nothing will replace the experience of watching the strategy day
in a day out coupled with how it reacts to different market
environments over a lengthy period of time.
That will provide you with hints when there is real trouble ahead.
Like most things, there’s nothing going to replace your experience
with the system. The experience is also necessary to build the level
of confidence you need to maintain and improve it as well and to
reject temptation to abandon it when it doesn’t perform up to your
expectations.
Remember, all traders sooner or later come to understand and
appreciate that it is only a question of when, not if, they are going
to be on the wrong side of the key trade. Strategies, even ones that
work perfect on paper, will always fail at some point sooner or later
on. The only question is how to utilize the strategy the best you can
up until that point AND to be able to pull the emergency chute
when it threatens your capital in a significant way.
So, next time you’re working a strategy that is making money
hand over first, take time to ask yourself this simple question –
Where will you meet your Waterloo? If you can always
answer that question to some degree, chances are good you never
will!
(to be contd)






red alert


rbi
The Reserve Bank of India today told banks that the restructured
loans of companies might pose a risk of losses over and above the
diminution in the value of advances.
The RBI warning — expressed in its Report on Trend and Progress
of Banking in India-2009-10 released today — comes at a time
domestic banking is witnessing a rise not only in non-performing
assets (NPAs) but also in the proportion of doubtful and loss assets.
According to the RBI norms, an advance is classified as NPA if
interest and/or instalment of the principal amount remains overdue
for more than 90 days. Doubtful assets are those that are
non-performing for more than 18 months.
While the NPAs are an important indicator of the financial
soundness of banks, the report said there were some emerging
concerns during 2009-10.
The asset quality of banks had been improving with the declining
level of gross and net NPA ratio since 1999. The gross NPA ratio,
which stood at 14.6 per cent in March 1999, fell to 2.25 per cent in
March 2008.
During the economic crisis of 2008-09,
the ratio remained unchanged. However in 2009-10, the gross
NPA ratio increased to 2.39 per cent. The net NPA ratio rose to
1.12 per cent in March this year from 1.05 per cent a year ago.
Gross NPA ratio was the highest for foreign banks, followed by
private sector banks.
“The empirical analysis taking growth rates of gross advances and
gross NPAs since June 2000 indicated that NPA growth follows
credit growth with a lag of two years. Asset quality can get
compromised during the periods of high credit growth and this
can result in the creation of NPAs in later years,’’ the RBI said.
Banks have resorted to loan restructuring to help creditworthy
borrowers hit by unexpected and adverse economic developments.
In such cases, there is a reduction in the interest rate or rescheduling
of the repayment of principal amounts.
Banks have recently been reporting slippages from restructured
accounts. The report, however, said the improvement in domestic
and global economic conditions could help limit the extent of fresh
slippages.
Citing the deterioration in asset quality, the central bank said signs
of financial stress remained an important concern for banks in the
medium to long term.
On liquidity, the RBI said sound liquidity management involved
prudent management of assets and liabilities supported by a process
of liquidity planning taking into account changes in economic,
regulatory or other operating conditions.





TODAY’S TRADING STRATEGY
OF NIFTY FUTURES – NOV 9

Day resistance @ 6333 & 6353
If trades above 6307
for 15 minutes
Hike upto 6333-43-53
is possible.
If 6353 too crossed,
Non-stop rally upto 6373-95
is seen on charts.

On the other hand,
If trades below 6308 for 15 minutes then
watch a slide upto 6289
And if 6289 is broken with
volume
more slide upto 6260-37 is possible.

A GENERAL VIEW THIS WEEK

DAY CHART OF NIFTY FUTURES
REVEALS THAT
Supports exists @ 6320-6300
And there
after @ 6276-6257-6238
Even those breached then
We can watch a slide upto 6213-6203-6159-6114
Carefully make a note of these
levels (as targets)
when you get into short trades.

Now let’s have a look on the
other side.
Good resistance @
6353
and 6363
MARK MY WORDS
Three consecutive closes above
6363
will take Nifty Futures to
various new highs
and create new history.
No doubt in that.



BANK NIFTY

Buy btwn 13197-222
T1 – 13264-85
T2 – 13298-306-32

Sell btwn 13113-087
T1 – 13045-024
T2 – 13011-003-12978

SHARE TIPS TODAY (NOV 9 )
Sell ICICIBank @ 1252
T1 – 1245
T2 – 1235

Sell Uniphos @ 210.10
T1 – 208.80
T2 – 206.90

Sell GMDCLtd @ 163.60
T1 – 162.60
T2 – 161.60


NOTE
1.THE ABOVE GIVEN TIPS
ARE APPLICABLE
ONLY FOR DAY TRADERS.

2.NEVER EVER ENTER
INTO A TRADE BEFORE
THE ABOVE MENTIONED
LEVELS
or
AFTER THE TARGETS
WERE ATTAINED.






AN ASTRAL VIEW OF MARKET TODAY
astrological clock in Piazza San Marco venice


  • New Year's going start time emerged ascendant Scorpio ascendant and Moon in the horoscope - Mars - Mercury is the conjunction. Rahu in Sagittarius sign in deblited sign, in 4th house Jupiter and retrograte position, Saturn posited in House of gains, in expenses and Foreign Investors House in 12th place deblited Sun and Venus own House present.
  • As we mentioned in the Diwali issue, keep taking frequent entries & exits . This will help you in more gains & benefits than losses.
  • Today, Sagittarius Moon and the constellation Moon the first phase Lord is Ketu.
  • Chandra Rahu is going to meet, so the market can be said direction-less, but don't worry they are - different Nwamaansh but the astrologer still recommend to be careful.
  • From 13:15 to 15:00, Nifty may remain soft.
  • From 15:00 till the last 30 minutes, there may be a little buying trend at Nifty.



Disclaimer
On repeated requests of the readers this astral prediction is started.
Traders are advised to attain some technical knowledge before they get into trades anyway
-EDITOR





WANT INDIA FOR SECURITY COUNCIL?


WE DESERVE IT WITH THE ILL-FATED
FARMERS EATING RATS AND MOUSE
FOR THEIR LUNCH AND DINNER?
pictures








WHAT ON EARTH DOES TRADING
TEACHES US LIFE?
Life Quote
Trading is a crucible of life: it distills, in a matter
of minutes,
the basic human challenge: the need to judge, plan,
and seek values under conditions of risk and
uncertainty.
In mastering trading, we necessarily face and master ourselves.
Very few arenas of life so immediately reward
self-development–and punish its absence.
So many life lessons can be culled from trading
and the markets:
1) Have a firm stop-loss point for all activities:
jobs, relationships,
and personal involvements. Successful people are
successful
because they cut their losing experiences short
and ride winning experiences.
2) Diversification works well in life and markets.
Multiple, non-correlated sources of fulfillment make
it easier to take risks in any one facet of life.
3) In life as in markets, chance truly favors
those who are prepared to benefit.
Failing to plan truly is planning to fail.
4) Success in trading and life comes from knowing
your edge,
pressing it when you have the opportunity,
and sitting back when
that edge is no longer present.
5) Risks and rewards are always proportional.
The latter, in life as in markets,
requires prudent management of the former.
6) Happiness is the profit we harvest from life.
All life’s activities
should be periodically reviewed for their return on investment.
7) Embrace change: With volatility comes
opportunity, as well as danger.
All trends and cycles come to an end.
Who anticipates the future,profits.
9) The worst decisions, in life and markets,
come from extremes:
overconfidence and a lack of confidence.
10) A formula for success in life and finance:
never hold an investment that you would not be
willing to purchase afresh today.







The Most Expensive Investing Book


The most expensive investing and stock trading book is
Margin of Safety:
Risk-Averse Value Investing
Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor,
which you can pick up a new copy of
on Amazon (AMZN) for $1,749.00. The book was written by
Seth Klarman, the successful founder and president of the
Baupost Group, a Boston-based hedge fund.
The book has a rating of four stars based on customer reviews
and was published by HarperCollins in 1991.







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MESSAGE TODAY

Creativity is allowing oneself to
make mistakes.
Art is knowing which ones to
keep.
-SCOTT ADAMS, The Dilbert Principle





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