-Richard Dennis
I see three types of confidence among traders:
First, is what I call ‘false confidence’ That’s the person who talks big and poses like a big shot. This type of person often takes big risks in an effort to either impress others or to assuage their own discomfort, and the results can be terrible.
Next, there is temporary confidence, which is conditional on recent performance. This is the person whose self-esteem is tied to their account equity or P&L. When on a good run, they feel confident and take larger risks (often the prelude to giving it all back). And when performance is lousy they start grasping at anything, maybe exiting winners prematurely or taking on excessive risk to get their money back.
Finally, we have true confidence. This is confidence that does not depend on recent results. It is based on a deep sense of inner trust. This is the person who has a history of doing the right thing, regardless of the outcome.
Doing the right thing in the sense that they act in their own best interest and trust and understand that doing such over time has a positive impact on results.
The trust runs deep enough to provide resilience in the face of disappointment. This is true self-confidence, the kind you want in trading and in life.
Almost everyone says that discipline is a requirement to succeed in trading. But most people never talk about what really underlies that type of discipline. The answer……true self-confidence.
(to be contd)
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK & LAST MONTH FOR OUR NEWS
Apart from 95% successful intraday trading in individual scrips, we had written very boldly (with entry dates) the levels of NIFTY one should trade in options (particularly in PUT) last month
From the 15th of march (when market was trading in 5500 levels) we have been crying to sell all the opportunities and stay calm in 5200PUT & 5100 PUT till the expiry
And now the successful trade is very much obvious and crystal clear to all
We always express before we do..
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Now what's gonna happen today..?
FUNDAMENTAL
This Week’s Market Round Up: "Markets end well amidst high volatility"
Sensex closes at 17,400, marginally positive; Nifty closes at 5,280, absolutely flat for the week.
Markets gyrated wildly during the week as uncertainty over General Anti Avoidance Rule (GAAR) and its repercussions plagued FIIs. However, during the week Finance Ministry confirmed that they would not tax P-Notes thus helping revive some level of nervousness.
10 year government bond yields rallied to 8.7% as the government announced its borrowing program for the first half FY13, gross market borrowing at Rs. 3.7 lakh crores.
However yields declined to close at 8.53% as RBI conducted a surprise open market operation of Rs. 10,000 crores on Friday.
Rupee bounced back against US dollar in the latter part of the week, ending at 50.7/dollar, up 1%.
MARKET OUTLOOK
"Maintain positive stance on markets…"
At the current level of 17,400, the Sensex trades at a PE of 15.8x FY12E earnings estimate and 13.7x FY13E earnings estimate.
At 13.7x, we trade below average valuations of 15.4x 1 year forward earnings.
Central banks in emerging markets are expected to support slowing growth through monetary easing, leading to a further fillip for growth and risk assets.
The budget was delivered with minimal reforms, or major announcements, hence was a non event in many ways.
With easy liquidity and attractive valuations, we recommend investors to utilize this high volatility period to increase allocation in equities.
POSITIVES/NEGATIVES AHEAD
Positives:
1) Euro zone Finance Ministers finalize the temporary combination of the EFSF and ESM. Italy and Spain get to contribute to their own bailout fund if needed
2) German unemployment falls more than expected and rate falls to lowest since reunification
3) German IFO business confidence up slightly to the highest since July
4)Italian business confidence up slightly from lowest since Dec ’09 and consumer confidence rises to 8 month high
5)U oM consumer confidence rises a touch to best since Feb ’11
6) Personal Spending in Feb rises .8% m/o/m, above estimates of up .6%
7 )MBA said purchase apps rose 3.3% to a 10 week high.
Negatives:
1)Inflation expectations in both the UoM (3.9%) and Conference Board (6.3%)confidence figures rise to the highest since May, 2)Chicago, Richmond, Dallas and KC mfr’g survey’s all fall more than expected in Mar from Feb
3)Real income falls in Feb by .1%, savings rate drops to 3.7%, the lowest since Aug ’09
4)Initial Jobless Claims 4 week avg 365k after benchmark revisions vs 355k prior
5)Feb Durable Goods orders grow less than expected after Jan’s weakness
6)MBA said refi’s fell 4.6% to lowest since early Dec
7)S&P/CS home price index falls to cheapest since Jan ’03
8)Pending Home Sales in Feb unexpectedly falls .5% but from most since Apr ’10
9)German retail sales in Feb falls for 4th month in past 5
10)Shanghai index closes down for the 3rd straight week due to continued concerns with economic growth
11)Bernanke wants to do more?
12)Gasoline prices rise another .035 on the week to $3.93.
In the film, Lars revisits the alleged insider trading leading up to the events of SEP11,2001
QUOTES ON LOSERS
“A loser doesn’t know what he’ll do if he loses, but talks about what he’ll do if he wins, and a winner doesn’t talk about what he’ll do if he wins, but knows what he’ll do if he loses.”
Show me a good loser and I’ll show you an idiot.”- Leo Durocher
“A winner makes commitment. A loser makes promises .”
“Part of me suspects that I’m a loser, and the other part of me thinks I’m God Almighty” -John Lennon
“The winner asks”May I help?” The loser asks, “Do you expect me to do that?””
Successful people don’t talk about failure, but use the words “setback” or “challenge”.
A winner rebukes and forgives; a loser is too timid to rebuke and too petty to forgive.
Employee of the month is a good example of how somebody can be both a winner and a loser at the same time.
He was a degenerate gambler. That is, a man who gambled simply to gamble and must lose. As a hero who goes to war must die. Show me a gambler and I’ll show you a loser, show me a hero and I’ll show you a corpse. -Mario Puzo
I wasn’t even 20 at the time, but it taught me something about drugs. They can take a good man, a warm, funny, loving family man, and turn him into a loser and worse. -Michael Bergin
If you’re still in a bar when the lights go on, you are a loser. -Jessica Cutler
If at first you don’t succeed, find out if the loser gets anything. William Lyon Phelps
No one knows what to say in the loser’s locker room. -Muhammad Ali
Second place is just the first place loser. -Dale Earnhardt
Show me a good and gracious loser and I’ll show you a failure. -Knute Rockne
The path of least resistance is the path of the loser. -HG Wells
Losers quit when they’re tired.
Most games are lost, not won. -Casey Stengel
Winning is overrated. The only time it is really important is in surgery and war. Al McGuire
Losing is the great American sin. -Jerome Holtzman
If winning isn’t everything, why do they keep score? -Vince Lombardi
Losing streaks are funny. If you lose at the beginning, you get off to a bad start. If you lose in the middle of the season, you’re in a slump. If you lose at the end, you’re choking. -Gene Mauch
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