A Day in the
Life of the Momentum Trader
A good way to
illustrate momentum trading is to look at a typical day of a momentum trader:
He gets up an
hour before the market opens, switches on his computer, goes online and
immediately logs into one of the popular trading chat rooms or message boards.
When looking at
these boards, our hero focuses on stocks that are generating a significant
amount of buzz. He looks at stocks that are the focus of trading alerts based
on earnings or analyst recommendations. These are stocks rumored to be in play,
and they are anticipated to provide the most significant price movements on
high volume for that trading day.
While surfing
the web, he will also turn on CNBC and listen for mentions of companies
releasing news or positioned to undergo significant movement.
He eyes the
morning equity options pages to find stocks with significant volume increases
in calls. Any increase in calls written indicates that a price increase or
decrease above or below the option premium is expected.
Once the market
opens, he watches his initial list of stocks in relation to the rest of the
market: Are his stocks going up when the market goes down? Are they
significantly increasing in price in relation to the rest of the market? Are
they behaving consistently with his expectations based on his pre-market
assessment?
He will then
narrow his watch list to include only the strongest stocks: those increasing
more rapidly on higher volume than the rest of the market, stocks trading
contrary to the market and stocks with movements clearly propelled by external
factors.
Analyzing the
Charts
Next, a momentum
trader will analyze the list of stocks he has chosen to focus on by examining
their charts. The primary technical indicator of interest is the momentum
indicator - the accumulated net change of a stock's closing/ending price over a
series of defined time periods. The momentum line is plotted as a tandem line
to the price chart, and it displays a zero axis, with positive values
indicating a sustained upward movement and negative values indicating a
potentially sustained downward movement.
That upward or
downward momentum indicator often immediately portrays a breakout for the
stock, which means that even a period or two of sustained momentum will propel
that stock in the direction of the breakout. While watching the momentum chart,
he has his Level 2 screen up, looking for evidence of a push, where bids start
to line up (indicated by the presence of market-maker limit orders) and offers
start to disappear.
When the trader
believes he has identified a breakout, he does not necessarily need to jump
immediately into the stock. He is not generally worried about missing the first
one or two breakout ticks, but he has his hand on the buy trigger (or sell trigger
in the case of a short sale, but a short sale must be done on an uptick) for
one of the next momentum periods. And he is generally not too concerned about
hitting the bid either, as he will have an easier time getting in at the market
price. Then he places a market order.
Momentum Trader:
In Position
Once he has
entered into his position, the white-knuckle ride and nail-biting begins. Will
the stock continue to move strongly in the direction of his momentum line? Or
will it immediately change course, proving the momentum chart wrong and perhaps
pointing to a trap set by the market maker? Or will the breakout fizzle
quickly, providing some limited upside but not enough profit to make the trade
worthwhile?
Whether the
momentum fizzles almost immediately or continues to build, the trader remains
glued to his screen. He is looking for a saturation point, where orders start
piling up on the offer and bidding slows or thins at the market price a few
levels back on the Level 2 screen. The saturation point does not mean an
immediate end to the momentum, but it may signal that the top is near. So the
trader sells his position (or covers his position in the case of a short sale)
and takes his profits to pack it in for the day or to move on to the next stock
on his list.
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