FROM AN EXPERIENCE
“A reminder to stubborn retail traders -
no matter how much you
want it or how much you add to your position,
you have no power over the market… ever.”
ASK YOURSELF FIRST----
WHY SHOULD I TRADE?
“I Want To Find Out Who I Really Am”
When you trade your monitor will do a funny thing. It will become a mirror. A special type of mirror. A mirror that reflects your self-confidence, your self-esteem, your self-worth. The numbers and lines you see on your screen are just that, numbers and lines. Market information. At your choosing, when you decide to become part of those numbers and lines (putting on/off the trade) a sort of test begins. A test about you.
If you see the test as threatening, you will feel threatened. If you see the test as war, you will be engaging in war. If you see the test as one more failure, you will fail. If you see the test as the need to prove yourself right, you will administered the pain of being wrong. If you see the test as certainty, you will be rudely introduced to uncertainty. If you see the test as a battle of wills, you will sacrifice your soul. If you see the test as fear or loss of money, you will be giving away your scared money.
If you see and believe the test to be an exchange of information, you now become the one to confirm or deny information. If you believe the test to be one of giving up what you want in order to get it, you will get it. Get it?
There is an irony in trading of both price and time. It is exactly what you have to give of yourself in order to trade it with understanding.
P.S. There are only two types of traders, “Long Lived” and “Short Lived.” Both know the markets well. The “Longed Lived” just choose know “Themselves” better.
Anyone who contemplates trading should ask themselves one simple question…..”Why Do I Want To Trade?” There are many wrong answers to this question, and only one right one….
I think the secret is cutting down the number of trades you make.
The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things
going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone.
First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance
of supply and demand, which could result in a major move.
Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the
direction that the fundamentals suggest.
Third, when news comes out, the market should act in a way
that reflects the right psychological tone
Next we see how fear and greed create negative impacts
in our trading often
What would greed and fear do?
- Not setting a stop when the method requires placing a stop (fear of taking a loss).
- Moving a stop when it shouldn’t have been moved (fear of taking a loss).
- Removing a stop when it was already in place (fear of taking a loss).
- Taking profits too early when the signal to exit has not been given (fear of profits being taken).
- Taking profits too late when the signal is already given (greed).
- Chasing the market when the entry is already past or no signal was given (greed of missing profits).
- Not making the entry when the signal is given (fear of losing again).
- Buying the pullback that is no longer a pullback but a decline (greed based on judgment that it’s now cheaper) or short selling when the rally is now a continued primary direction (fear of losing).
- Adding on a losing position, i.e. averaging down (fear of losing).
There are few solutions to this problem
- Write a trading plan for each and every trade and referring to it when he feels the emotion is overtaking him.
- Keep a trading journal with each trade taken along with thoughts and emotions during the open position. Recording these moments will reveal how much or how little control he has over emotions that influence or interfering with his trading method.
- Use an automated trading system to avoid interacting and interfering with trading. When no trading decisions have to be taken, there is less of a tendency to interfere.
- Once the trade is taken and stops and targets are set, walk away from the trading station or go about with other tasks. Stay close and follow every up and down ticks will increase emotions and will eventually affect trading.
- Keep the Profits and Loss (P/L) columns out of the desktop. This is the most important factor of all emotions: counting money. By having it readily available emotion will be exaggerated swinging up and down according the profits or losses going up or down. Removing this information is especially recommended for day traders.
- Trade small size until emotions are under control. By doing this, it’s obvious that it’s not about making money but about trading the method properly. The further away the thought of money is, the better the emotions are kept at bay.
- If trading is technically-based, focus on the charts, not on the quotes windows. Scalpers spend so little time in a position that using quotes and ticks are a necessity. For other traders, these can only increase emotional states
(to be contd)
A SHARP ANALYSIS
Dear friends, traders,
A good correction from
4786-6338 in Nifty SPOT is over as predicted exactly.
(Refresh your thoughts or surf older posts
for confirmation)
for confirmation)
Hope you all made good money
out of our predictions.
out of our predictions.
Now a bounce back is clearly visible (from 5177),
which means an upper wave, started to correct the
decline wave ( 6338-6177) of Nifty
SO NOW WHERE DO WE EXPECT
THE RESISTANCES
THE RESISTANCES
OR TARGETS IN FORTHCOMING SESSIONS?
PLS MAKE A NOTE OF ALL THESE ATTAINABLE
LEVELS OF NIFTY SPOT–
IT DOESN’T CHANGE EVERYDAY
This is an overall opinion about the Market (Nifty Index)
and these levels are certainly
NOT for Day traders
NOT for Day traders
Here we GO ----------
5561 – 5621 – 5679 – 5758
and after that
5798 – 5895 – 5916 –
5989 – 6032
5989 – 6032
NOW CATCH TODAY’S DESTINY
TRADING STRATEGY
OF NIFTY FUTURES – MARCH 3
Day Resistance between 5570-76
If crossed decisively and trades above this level
for 15 minutes, a sure hike upto
5596-5623 is possible within today’s session.
On the other hand if cuts and trades below 5534
for 15 minutes see an intraday slide upto
5500-5487-77-67 & then upto 5447
If that too breaks, see more panic upto 5422
(But chances are remote in this side)
BANK NIFTY
Buy btwn 11020-36
T1 – 11094-11123
T2 – 11134-52
T3 – 11188
Sell btwn 10863-47
T1 – 10790-61
T2 – 10750-32
T3 – 10696
(Refer to ‘OUR POLICIES’ in blog archives
if you have any queries regarding subscription)
For further details,
Contact Admin (Analyst) @
(0)9788563656
SAUDI ARABIA WILL LET OIL REACH $120
All those naively hoping that Saudi Arabia has suddenly
developed some altruistic bent and will act against its
own interest by increasing excess production
(which according to Jim Rogers it simply does not have),
to keep oil prices lower, are advised to reevaluate.
According to CBS, citing “the conclusion of an
internal report prepared by a major investment firm
based on information from its extensive and
knowledgeable contacts within OPEC” Saudi Arabia
won’t take “significant steps to bring down the price
of crude oil until Brent, the grade traded most on the
open market, reaches $120 a barrel, about 8 percent
above current levels.”
More from CBS: “In the report, which was made available
to MoneyWatch on the condition that the firm not be
named because briefings with its contacts are off the
record, the OPEC sources reiterate their earlier analysis
of the oil market, which has proven to be on the nose.
They contend that the delicate political situation
across the Middle East and North Africa – including
the fragile state of affairs within Saudi borders –
is preventing the kingdom from doing the sensible
economic thing and increasing production to keep prices
under control.” Which simply means that Rogers and
all those doubting the veracity of Saudi’s motives,
not to mention the kingdom’s rhetoric that it has boosted
output to over 9 million bbls/day, have been correct,
and the supply/demand dynamics of the
stockmarket have been largely unchanged since
Libya took over 1.6 million barrels of oil from the market.
developed some altruistic bent and will act against its
own interest by increasing excess production
(which according to Jim Rogers it simply does not have),
to keep oil prices lower, are advised to reevaluate.
According to CBS, citing “the conclusion of an
internal report prepared by a major investment firm
based on information from its extensive and
knowledgeable contacts within OPEC” Saudi Arabia
won’t take “significant steps to bring down the price
of crude oil until Brent, the grade traded most on the
open market, reaches $120 a barrel, about 8 percent
above current levels.”
More from CBS: “In the report, which was made available
to MoneyWatch on the condition that the firm not be
named because briefings with its contacts are off the
record, the OPEC sources reiterate their earlier analysis
of the oil market, which has proven to be on the nose.
They contend that the delicate political situation
across the Middle East and North Africa – including
the fragile state of affairs within Saudi borders –
is preventing the kingdom from doing the sensible
economic thing and increasing production to keep prices
under control.” Which simply means that Rogers and
all those doubting the veracity of Saudi’s motives,
not to mention the kingdom’s rhetoric that it has boosted
output to over 9 million bbls/day, have been correct,
and the supply/demand dynamics of the
stockmarket have been largely unchanged since
Libya took over 1.6 million barrels of oil from the market.
More from CBS:
Saudi authorities were reported to have raised
output late last week to compensate for supply
disruptions in Libya, but if the investment firm’s sources
are right, as they have been since unrest in the region
was in its initial phase, the Saudi move may not be
as big or as prolonged as many expect. The firm’s
report indicates that Saudi leaders have other concerns
that would persuade them to take less robust steps
than usual to stabilize oil prices:
output late last week to compensate for supply
disruptions in Libya, but if the investment firm’s sources
are right, as they have been since unrest in the region
was in its initial phase, the Saudi move may not be
as big or as prolonged as many expect. The firm’s
report indicates that Saudi leaders have other concerns
that would persuade them to take less robust steps
than usual to stabilize oil prices:
“The main threat is . . . Saudi instability when the
current king dies. We know he is very ill but obviously
there is no indication of how critical that condition is.
But it is acknowledged that the next transition will
present a much bigger threat to internal stability. . . .
Vested interest groups have been waiting for this
transition to push their agenda. Saudi
experienced considerable regional instability up to
10 years ago but bought it off with higher oil-based
spending. Today the problem is as bad, if not worse.
There have been only a few of the promised
reforms. . . . Resentment towards the wealth gap
with the royals is very high. . . . Even if/when the
instability in other countries, such as Libya, settles,
the Saudi succession threat is now firmly on the table.
What happens in Bahrain could be very key.
That alone will keep the oil market nervous for this year.”
current king dies. We know he is very ill but obviously
there is no indication of how critical that condition is.
But it is acknowledged that the next transition will
present a much bigger threat to internal stability. . . .
Vested interest groups have been waiting for this
transition to push their agenda. Saudi
experienced considerable regional instability up to
10 years ago but bought it off with higher oil-based
spending. Today the problem is as bad, if not worse.
There have been only a few of the promised
reforms. . . . Resentment towards the wealth gap
with the royals is very high. . . . Even if/when the
instability in other countries, such as Libya, settles,
the Saudi succession threat is now firmly on the table.
What happens in Bahrain could be very key.
That alone will keep the oil market nervous for this year.”
The investment firm predicts that $120 a barrel will
provide greater resistance for buyers to overcome
than $100 did. Still, it warns that as the price
approaches that level, Saudi Arabia will be
inclined to increase production “cautiously rather
than aggressively.”
provide greater resistance for buyers to overcome
than $100 did. Still, it warns that as the price
approaches that level, Saudi Arabia will be
inclined to increase production “cautiously rather
than aggressively.”
The report does not address the impact of $120
oil on stocks and bonds, but it probably would be
harmful to both. And what if oil doesn’t stop
at $120? If Saudi Arabia is beset by a succession
struggle and/or something similar to what has
happened elsewhere in the region and oil prices
shoot past that level, the reaction in financial
markets is likely to be severe.
oil on stocks and bonds, but it probably would be
harmful to both. And what if oil doesn’t stop
at $120? If Saudi Arabia is beset by a succession
struggle and/or something similar to what has
happened elsewhere in the region and oil prices
shoot past that level, the reaction in financial
markets is likely to be severe.
As this story spreads, look for Brent to not go
much lower from here as total chaos appears
to be the underlying geopolitical thesis yet again.
much lower from here as total chaos appears
to be the underlying geopolitical thesis yet again.
“The market is never wrong in what it does;
it just is.
Therefore, you as an individual trader
interacting with the market
—first as an observer to perceive
opportunity, then as a participant
executing a trade, contributing to the
overall market behavior
—have to confront an environment
where only you can be wrong,
and it’s never the other way around. As a trader, you have to
decide what is more important—being right or making
money—because the two are not always compatible
or consistent with one another.”
-Mark Douglas, in The Disciplined Trader
QUOTES OF PETER LYNCH
“You can’t see the future through a rear view mirror.”
“The best stock to buy
may be the one you
already own.”
“You should not buy
a stock because it’s
cheap but because you
know a lot about it.”
“An investment is simply a gamble in which you’ve
managed to tilt the odds in your favor.”
“Fortunes change, there is no assurance that major
companies won’t become minor, and there is no such
thing as a can’t-miss blue chip.”
“Gambling can be separated from investing not by
the type of activity but by the skill, dedication and
enterprise of the participant.”
“People think that things need to go from terrible
to terrific before they can invest, but things only
have to get to somewhat crummy for stocks to go up.”
“It takes remarkable patience to hold on to a stock
in a company that excites you, but which everybody
else seems to ignore. You begin to think everybody
else is right and you are wrong. But where
fundamentals are promising, patience is rewarded.”
“There is no shame in losing money on a stock.
Everybody does it. What is shameful is to hold on
to a stock or worse to buy more of it when the
fundamentals are deteriorating.”
“Although its easy to forget sometimes, a share is
not a lottery ticket. It’s a part ownership of a business.”
– Peter Lynch
MESSAGE TODAY
will learn in no other.
-BENJAMIN FRANKLIN,
RELAX CORNER
JUST SMS TO YOUR PAL
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