Monday, January 24, 2011

A MOTLEY MONDAY

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FROM AN EXPERIENCE

 Recently, I just read a book authored by Mark B. Fisher, The Logical Trader. There are some good trading quotes that I like from that book. So, I think it may be good to share them here too.
 
Here are the trading quotes:
Have A Plan
In trading, as in life, you need a plan. This plan includes not only the micro – a strategy for each and every trade you make – but also the macro – meaning why you trade, how you intend to reach that goal (your means to the desired end), and what you’ll do as an alternative if that doesn’t work out.
 
Know what you want to accomplish, how you intend to get there, and what you will do if it does – or does not – work out. Have a plan and stick with it. That works in trading, as well as in life.

I Know Who I Am
Coming to term with who I am as a trading, knowing my limitations, and doing what I do well – and not doing those things that I have no clue about – has brought me continued success.
Too many people want to be who they are not, and professionally – whether in trading or in another field of business – that’s where they run into trouble.
 

Discipline and Comfortable With Yourself
You don’t need complicated Einstein formulas to make money in the markets.
You do need to be disciplined and comfortable with yourself.
No matter how good of a trader you think you are, the markets are always going to screw with your head and test your mental fortitude.
Remember, the survivors are also the ones who make up the market’s success stories.
 

Time Stop
An important rule of trading is that time is much more important than price.
Successful trading is a matter of seeking out immediate gratification. If the market doesn’t move your way within a short time of putting on a trade, just get out.
Most people trade just with Price Stops and not with Time Stops. They think they have to endure some initial pain. You, however, should not.
 

Get Out When You’re Wrong
Successful traders know that discipline is what allows them to enter their trades when the odds are in their favor and, more importantly, to get out when they’re wrong.
Being right is not the problem. What you do when you’re wrong is the crucial issue.
 
There are a lot of traders who buy then pray while the market goes against them, because they think that it will eventually go their way.
Most traders average down and wait for the market to turn their way.
Trading my way, I always have defined amount of money that I am willing to lose.
I let the market decide how much money I’m going to make.


Good News/Bad Action
When the news is good but the market just does not rise correspondingly, sell.


I Have No Clue
 
If a market is making a substantial move and traders seem to understand why, this market trend is not going to last very long.
However, if the market is moving in one direction and nobody has no clue as to why, then the trend is going to be prolonged.
 
When a market goes up or down for no apparent reason, it tends to go a lot further in that direction than people can imagine.

Be The House
The more time you spend at the table, the more bets you are going to place, and the greater the probability that you will eventually walk out of the casino as a loser. The casino would rather not have someone make a single large wager and win or lose, immediately walk away.

What the house wants is for you to keep playing. The passage of time is the casino’s best friend and the player’s worst enemy.


Money Management
If the odds are in your favor of making a profit with your trading system, then keep your trade size consistent, cut your losses short, and know that, over time, you’ll be successful.

Fear and Greed
The two key ingredients that every trader needs to posses in the right combination in order to be successful – namely, fear and greed.

You need to have enough fear in you, meaning a healthy amount of respect for the market that you are participating in.
Allowing yourself that you are always right, especially when the market is clearly dictating that you are dead wrong, is a sure path toward trading disaster.

However, fear is not enough.
A trader must also have a healthy amount of greed.
You must be willing and able to press winning trades and allow these once-in-a-blue-moon occurrences to develop into large scale winners.
Sometimes it takes an iron will and a great deal of patience to be able to max out on these particular trades.


Staying Out Of The Penalty Box
The key to the whole puzzle is discipline, the more you have, the better you’ll trade.
The best traders have incredible amounts of discipline when they have a trading position on. They cut their losses and run. That’s the hardest thing on the world for a lot of other traders.
Maybe you’re bullish on the market, but your indicators say to get out. After you do, the market goes up this one time. Then you question your system. But if you stick with the system, you’ll be a lot better off.




TODAY’S TRADING STRATEGY
OF NIFTY FUTURES – JAN 24 
 
A VOLATILE SESSION EXPECTED

See NiftyFutures traveling upto 5715-29 in a normal opening
Today’s resistance between 5715-30
Support between 5674-59
Nfutures going to be very volatile between 5658 and 5730 today.
Day traders, swing traders, pls stay away till the market gives
us a clear picture breaking these levels.
More updates – only to the subscribers in market hours.


 A GENERAL ALERT ABOUT NIFTY FOR THE INVESTORS

Dear friends, traders,
A Complete correction from
4786-6338 in Nifty SPOT is obvious on EOD chart.
art attack,alert,gif

SO NIFTY SPOT REACHING THE LEVELS
OF 5561-5380-5196-5095-5013-4830 is pre-determined.

MARK THESE SUPPORT LEVELS OF
NIFTY SPOT– IT DOESN’T CHANGE EVERYDAY
(This is an overall opinion about the Market (Nifty)
and these levels are certainly NOT for Day, Swing traders
but a caution for all investors indeed)

The end of a complete corrective wave is at 4830
What you all watch is just a trailer of a bloodbath.
Therefore Investors just leave your investment in
your Savings Account or Current account for now.


BANK NIFTY

Buy btwn 10954-69         
T1 – 11017-41    
T2 – 11057-66
T3 – 11096 

Sell btwn 10825-11    
T1 – 10763-38
T2 10723-14  
T3 – 10684


SHARE TIPS TODAY (JAN 24) 

OIL, ONGC, ACC, FINANTECH – All looking weak – Sell these stocks on every rise (when market slides)

Exact Entry, Exit, Stop levels only to the subscribers

   

Disclosure:
Number of free tips is deliberately reduced from 
today onwards.
Solely I have all the rights to stop this too
at any moment.
Subscribe as soon as possible if you want to earn more.
Join hands with us and enjoy.


CONTROLLING EMOTIONS IS A KEY TO WIN
emotions

1. Caution.
Excitement (and fear of missing an opportunity) often persuade us to enter the market before it is safe to do so. After a down-trend a number of rallies may fail before one eventually carries through. Likewise, the emotional high of a profitable trade may blind us to signs that the trend is reversing.

2. Patience.
Wait for the right market conditions before trading. There are times when it is wise to stay out of the market and observe from the sidelines.

3. Conviction.
Have the courage of your convictions: Take steps to protect your profits when you see that a trend is weakening, but sit tight and don’t let fear of losing part of your profit cloud your judgment. There is a good chance that the trend will resume its upward climb.

4. Detachment.
Concentrate on the technical aspects rather than on the money. If your trades are technically correct, the profits will follow.
Stay emotionally detached from the market. Avoid getting caught up in the short-term excitement. Screen-watching is a tell-tale sign: if you continually check prices or stare at charts for hours it is a sign that you are unsure of your strategy and are likely to suffer losses.

5. Focus
Focus on the longer time frames and do not try to catch every short-term fluctuation. The most profitable trades are in catching the large trends.

6. Expect the unexpected.
Investing involves dealing with probabilities – not certainties. No one can predict the market correctly every time. Avoid gamblers’ logic.

7. Average up – not down.
If you increase your position when price goes against you, you are liable to compound your losses. When price starts to move it is likely to continue in that direction. Rather increase your exposure when the market proves you right and moves in your favour.

8. Limit your losses.
Use stop loss orders to protect your funds. When the stop loss is triggered, act immediately – don’t hesitate.
The biggest mistake you can make is to hold on to falling stocks, hoping for a recovery. Falling stocks have a habit of declining way below what you expected them to. Eventually you are forced to sell, decimating your capital.
Human nature being what it is, most traders and investors ignore these rules when they first start out. It can be an expensive lesson.
Control your emotions and avoid being swept along with the crowd. Make consistent decisions based on sound technical analysis.
These guidelines should be internalised and if you are uncertain of which way to turn with a particular trade, re-read these statements and your answer should become clear.



GO THROUGH OUR RECOMMENDATIONS

book,workload 
1. How to Make Money in Stocks 
(by William J O’Neil)
This is the best stock market trading

book ever written.
It gives you an excellent blend of
technical and fundamental analysis 
lessons based on what really works 
in the market. The strategies, methods 
and principles taught in this book are
proven historically. 
This book covers a lot of ground and 
provides an excellent foundation to
build your successful 
trading plan and begin your investment career.

2. Reminiscences of a Stock  Operator

  (by Edwin Lefevre) 1923
An all time classic. This is the most widely read, 
highly recommended market trading book ever.
Its certainly a must read for all investors, novice or experienced. 
Packed full of great trading knowledge.
This book is full of market gems.

3. The Battle For Investment Survival 

(by Gerald Loeb) 1935
Another all time classic. Great trading wisdom can be extracted 
from this book. 
Learn to trade stocks from one of the best.
Loeb is truly a market genius. 
Reading this book would be a great investment in your future
as a trader or investor. 

4. Market Wizards  (3 books by Jack D. Schwager)

Three excellent books that feature interviews of the world’s
greatest traders and investors.
The books ask questions that traders and investors would love
to ask these superstars of trading.
The answers given are a fantastic wealth of knowledge. 
Covers the stock market, futures,
options and most other trading venues in the investment world.

5. Lessons From the Greatest Stock Traders of All Time

  (by John Boik)
Five great stock market traders from various eras give
you superb lessons on how to be a
consistent winner. William J O’Neil, Gerald Loeb, 
Bernard Baruch, Jesse Livermore and 
Nicolas Darvis turn this book into a trading bible.
Learn from the best and become a market
superstar in the investment world.

6. Trading in the Zone  (by Mark Douglas)

This is the definitive handbook for developing an effective
trading mindset. Don’t ever underestimate 
the importance of psychology in trading. This book will teach
you how to trade without
any emotional discomfort. The number one enemy of the trader
is themselves. Once you have a successful trading plan and
learn how to deal with the psychology of 
trading you are on your way to trading greatness.

7. How to Make Profits in Commodities   (by W.D. Gann)
This is one of my personal favorites. It provides a lot of solid 
trading principles and methods 
that are just as valid today as they were many decades ago. 
Gann gave us the best of his 50 years
of trading experience in this superb book. Much can be learned
and you will improve your trading
and overall investment skills.

8. Tape Reading & Market Tactics 
(by Humphrey B. Neill)
Superb overall book concerning the stock market. 

Great insight on how to read what really
happening in the markets. The information on volume
and how to interpret it, can be worth
a fortune on its own. Also gives very good information 
on the stock market crash in 1929 
and the signs leading up to it. This book is a real learning 
experience and a solid investment in yourself.

9. Essentials of Trading  (by Pesavento/Jouflas)

This is a remarkable book and a valuable addition to your 
trading knowledge. It’s a wonderful 
compilation of articles written about all facets of trading
in the markets. The book includes a lot
of great quotes which will add to your investment knowledge.
In all there are over one hundred 
articles on every essential aspect of trading.

10. How I Made Two Million Dollars in the Stock Market

  (by Nicolas Darvis)
This is the first hand account of how Darvis made two million
dollars in the stock market in
about 2 years. You will learn how his famous 
“Darvis Box Theory” allowed him to make a fortune.
Darvis stresses the importance of having a trading plan.

11. Introduction to Technical Analysis  (by Martin Pring)
This is a very good book to begin your technical analysis
education which is critical to trading success.
Once you read and understand the contents you will
have a solid foundation of technical analysis 
knowledge to work with. Definately a great investment
in yourself as a market trader.

12. Bruce Gould On Commodities “Volume One” and 

Commodity Trading Manual  (both by Bruce Gould)
Excellent information concerning commodities trading.
Methods, principles and strategies. 
Includes reading chart patterns, odds, cash basis and 
seasonal information. 
Both are highly recommended if your interested
in trading commodities which are also an
important part of the investment world.

13. Trader Vic-Methods of a Wall Street Master
  (by Victor Sperandeo)
Victor Sperandeo is the ultimate Wall Street Pro.

He has an amazing success record as a 
money manager. Traders and investors can benefit 
from the wisdom in this book.
Many important aspects of making money are covered. 
This includes economics, trading methods, 
psychology and Federal Reserve policy.

14. Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
  (by Stan Weinstein)
Stan Weinstein is a financial expert. His expertise is sought
worldwide. 
This book is considered a bible by many in the
investment world. 
His stock advice is based on four market cycles or stages.
The idea is to trade on future trends by analyzing recurring 
chart patterns. 
The information in this book is based on sound trading principles.

15. Martin Pring on Price Patterns  (by Martin Pring)
Martin Pring is probably the world’s most respected

technical analyst. 
The proper use of price patterns will give any trader or 
investor a huge advantage in the marketplace.
This book covers all key aspects of technical analysis as
they apply to price patterns.

16. Market Masters  (by Jake Bernstein)
This is an excellent book that can help you become a 
market master.
Many winning principles are covered. 
This book will tell you what it takes to succeed and 
what traits winning traders have in common.
There is a goldmine of information in this book.

17. The Complete Turtle Trader  (by Michael Covel)
This excellent book goes through many of the rules taught

by Richard Dennis.
Trend following is a very successful method of trading, 
but is difficult in a 
psychological sense. In this book, you are taught to 
calculate your edge for every trade.
It also teaches that price is the purest form of information
that the markets give.
If you are interested in trend following, this book is an
excellent option to attain knowledge.

18. Trend Following  (by Michael Covel)
Another superb book concerning trend following. 
Trend following is an anti-Wall Street
method that has made fortunes for some of the world’s 
greatest traders ever. 
You can discover exactly how to use trend following
by implementing the knowledge 
supplied by this book. This book provides real 
proof, real data, and real results.

19. Winning on Wall Street  (by Marty Zweig)
This book provides proven strategies on how to make

well-informed buying and selling 
decisions. It will show you how to pick winners, 
spot major bull and bear trends early,
and will be an excellent guide for you in the stock market.

20. One Up on Wall Street  (by Peter Lynch)

This book provides practical knowledge on how
to research stocks and the market.
Peter Lynch is one of the greatest money mangers
of all time. A main theme of the book is
to not listen to so-called market experts, because 
many times they are wrong. I personally 
do not agree with all the trading principles in this book,
but the book is filled with a lot of 
solid trading and investing knowledge.




PATIENCE - A REAL VIRTUE

Patience 
As a professional trader I still 
get all the urges to system chase 
and break the rules as much as 
anyone,but the key is learning
how to control those urges.
This week has seen some
fantastic set ups in the market, 
and I have known which way
the price would likely move
thanks to the powerful tools 
I have at my disposal, but the 
problem has been that the price
just hasn’t been retracing 
to the levels that I have been waiting at.
This can cause some people to want to just jump in because 
they have been right about the overall direction the last 
10 times, or even worse some people may even be tempted 
to enter the market without using a stop loss thinking that 
the price will come their way in the end.
These urges and acting upon them show a lack of patience 
and discipline and this is what the market punishes the most.
It’s really important to wait until price is exactly where you 
want it to be before entering the market.
The best thing you can do is find something else to take your 
mind off the trade. Read a book, play a game or go for a walk.
Once you have analysed your charts and set the order in 
with your broker there is nothing more to do until the trade 
actually triggers.
The question is have you got the patience to wait?





ARE YOU SPONTANEOUS IN ENTRY & EXIT OR  FOLLOWING THE BLUE CHANNELS WHILE U TRADE?

enter sign
exit

1. Forget the news, remember the chart. No one is smart enough to know how news will affect price in every case.  The chart already knows the news is coming.
2. Execute positions based on numbers, time, and volume, not emotions.  This discipline forces the trader to distance himself from reckless gambling behavior. 
3. Remember that participants in the markets echo similar patterns over and over again based on the infallible rules of human behavior allowing the trader to take advantage of potentially profitable trades while minimizing losses.





(Refer to ‘OUR POLICIES’ in blog archives if you have 
any queries before you leave the site)

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Contact Admin (Analyst) @
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MESSAGE TODAY

If what we worship fail us, still the fire
Burns on, and it is much to have believed.
                                          -AMY LOWELL, "Hero-Worship"


RELAX CORNER

Some great British humor for the weekend, mentioned in a recent 
Casey Research newsletter. You will hear about Apples (AAPL),
Research In Motion’s (RIMM) BlackBerry, and Microsoft’s (MSFT)
Windows. By the way, non-techies should know before they watch:
Orange is a European cell phone service provider, a dongle is a 
short wire adapter that connects a computer to an Internet cable,
and black spots are wireless dead zones.
WATCH IT PALS






JUST SMS TO YOUR PAL

Born Free........Taxed to Death
   









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