Monday, June 27, 2011

A REVELATION MONDAY



FROM AN EXPERIENCE

“Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes
 from bad judgment.”
                                                                       -Barry Le Platner

All beginning traders lack one key ingredient for success: 
experience. 
Experience is simply exposure to a particular activity over an 
extended period of time.  Good judgment is a by-product of 
experience and is necessary for success in all areas of life, from 
driving, cooking, golf, to surgery, etc, as well as, you guessed it, 
stock and options trading.
We can sum it up as follows:
EXPERIENCE = TIME + SPECIFIC ACTIVITY = GOOD JUDGMENT

Unfortunately, very few beginning traders have enough “education” 
money to succeed at trading because good judgment requires that a 
person remain focused on a specific activity long enough to draw 
sound conclusions.  In other words, good judgment is based on trust 
in the specific activity without doubting its overall effectiveness.

A very good example is riding a bike.  Once you learn to ride, 
you do not have to relearn to ride again as your judgment takes 
over and you trust yourself to balance, steer, brake, etc. without 
having to really think about doing it. The activity itself becomes 
automatic.  Same with driving a car.  After a while, you do not have 
to think about braking, looking in your mirrors, utilizing turn 
signals, etc.  Driving a car becomes automatic.  Good judgment 
becomes automatic.

Beginning traders usually lack sound judgment because 
1) they do not focus on a specific activity; 
2) they do not focus on an activity for an extended period of time 
(and I do not mean a few days); and 
3) they do not trust themselves enough to arrive at a good, 
sound conclusion about their trading method since the test 
period is inadequate.

So, how long does it take for a trader to become successful enough 
to practice sound judgment?
DEPENDS ON WHETHER OR NOT YOU WANT TO 
DRIVE A CAR OR FLY A 747

There is much debate over how long it takes for a trader to move 
from the “newbie” level to the “professional” level 
(by which I mean moving from losing money to making money on 
a consistent basis).
The answer really depends on the initial approach: do you want to 
learn to fly a 747 or would driving a car do?  In other words, 
would you want your education to take an extended period of time 
(and money) as you try to learn everything there is to learn about 
the Market (impossible) or would you prefer the simple approach? 
Remember: good judgment is based on a specific activity over an 
extended period of time.  You can control the experience (=time) 
by focusing on a specific activity. By focusing on a specific activity 
you can shorten the learning curve.  It is completely up to you.

My one idea for shortening the learning curve?  Keep it simple right 
from the start with a set of simple rules for entering and exiting 
(at a profit AND loss) the market. Period!  This is much like the 
trading experiment from the early 1980s known as the Turtle 
Experiment as outlined in Curtis Faith’s book Way of the Turtle. 
I won’t go through the details here but suffice it to say that this 
experiment took a few people with a specific set of rules and made 
traders out of them (and a lot of money!).

The best part: the training only took a few weeks!  Why?
Because the Turtle Trading System focused on a specific set of 
rules (activity) over an extended period of time and provided the 
traders the self trust to make sound judgments!
nce achieved the trading became automatic.

Traders like to think that they only need to be accountable to 
themselves in order to get the best out of their trading. 
But it has been my experience that most traders fail miserably 
at this task.  So why are traders not able to do this?
They do not want to:
    Be wrong
    Admit that they are changing their rules
    Face up to the fact that they do not have good rules
    Realize that they need psychological help
    Realize that they do not have what it takes

If you are committed to doing whatever it takes to follow your 
rules to reach a higher level of profit, you should consider asking 
someone to help you with this task if you are not doing a good job 
of it yourself.

Who could take on the role of a trader’s accountability?
    A significant other
    A friend
    A trading buddy
    A teacher
    A coach

What would a person need to help you be more accountable?
    A clearly defined set of rules from you
    Your commitment to telling the truth to them
    An accounting of the trades you took
    Why you think the trades you took were good opportunities
    The risk/reward ratios before the trade
    The money management procedure you followed
    Whether or not you followed your rules
    The lessons you learned
And at the four month periodical review, the changes you would 
make and why

Reward or punishment
There should be a clearly defined predetermined punishment or 
reward that both of you agree upon for not following your rules.
Here are some examples of punishments or rewards to consider.

Punishment
    No trading the rest of the day
    Walk around the block before taking the next trade
    Twenty push ups
    Limit the size of your trades for the rest of the week

Rewards
    Ten percent of every good trade will go into a rewards account 
    for you
    A food or entertainment treat
    Time with a special friend
    Any – my favorite, a black tie party

Conclusion
When you make yourself accountable in trading to someone else, 
you activate that part of you that has already been 
programmed for accountability.
In doing this you will be more accountable to yourself.
                                                                                        (to be contd)



OUR SUCCESS STORY AND FORECAST IN NIFTY












Dear friends, traders,
At first we predict exactly the corrective wave (6338-5178)
of  NIFTY SPOT upto 5916 at the beginning of this year itself..
Exactly on our predicted month (6th of APRIL 2011) Nifty
touches 5944 crossing our 5916 target
Not only that….
Exactly at the last week of APRIL and at the beginning of
MAY (when Nifty was trading between 5900 & 5800 levels)
we wrote Nifty is going to slide upto 5471 and 5380 and by
the first week of the month (MAY) our subscribers are boldly
advised to enter into PUT OPTIONS
(Even some operators mock us @ that time)
But what happened you all know..
Exactly before two days (of the contract expiry) on MAY 23rd
Nifty touches 5380 level and every (operator's) laugh turned into 
great howling…
Our subscribers holding 5500, 5400, 5300 PUTS were on 
money rain by the end of the contract (as usual)
After that Nifty reaches 5329 and had a 
small bounce back
for 200 pts and slides upto 400 pts from
 5605 to 5196.

(EVEN THIS WE PREDICTED 2 WEEKS
BEFORE THE MOVEMENT EXACTLY – 
Refresh your thoughts or 
browse older posts pls)


SO, NOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN NEAR FUTURE…?
After all this happenings now Nifty is showing a bounce back
(like) movement from 5196
But still we insist not to believe the movement as a BULLS Ride.

MARK MY WORDS
Bulls will enter into the show only after 2-3 consecutive closes 
above 5605 – Remember this point – 
This is not going to change every day
 
SO NOW WHERE DO WE EXPECT THE RESISTANCES
OR TARGETS IN FORTHCOMING SESSIONS AND WHAT 
ARE ALL THE POINTS THAT FAVOUR BEARS..?

PLS MAKE A NOTE OF ALL THESE ATTAINABLE 
LEVELS OF NIFTY SPOT IN YOUR DIARY,
GIVEN BELOW
5482-97 – 5527 – 5545 – 5570 – 5593
Keep in mind - Each & every level mentioned here favour 
bears for short



TODAY’S TRADING STRATEGY
OF NIFTY FUTURES – JUNE 27

Good intraday support @ 5395 & 5375

Strong resistance @ 5501

If trades above 5474 for 5-10 minutes, we can see 
a sure hike upto 5500
After decisively crossing 5502 it goes
upto 5527-5543
If 5543 too broken with good volume,
see more upto 5560-76

Suppose if cuts 5473 and trades below for 15 minutes
a non-stop slide upto 5437-30-20 is possible
If breaks 5420, see more slid upto 5404-5395
Below 5395, it tends to touch 5375


SHARE TIPS TODAY (JUNE 27th)      

1) Sell BEL @ 1546.50
    T – 1531.50

2) Sell JINDWORLD @ 169.50
    T – 167.10

3) Sell CONCOR @ 1067.75
    T – 1055.80


Disclosure:
1. Stoploss levels, reverse trades are exclusively to the  subscribers.
2. Solely I have all the rights to stop this free tips
at any moment.
Subscribe as soon as possible and earn more.
Join hands with us and enjoy pals.




INDIAN GOLD AND SILVER IMPORTS 
SURGE BY 500% IN MAY





India’s heretofore “insatiable” appetite for precious metals will 
need to find a new adjective to describe it, after it surged by an 
absolutely unprecedented 500% in May MoM, and 222% compared 
to May of 2010, touching on a massive $8.96 billion in imports in 
the past month. Putting this number in perspective the yearly 
average Indian imports are about $22 billion: in one month the 
country will have imported about half its average quota for the year! 
And while inflation may have much to do with it, events like the 
Sensex flash crash from last night certainly are not helping matters: 
“The gold story is puzzling” added financial analyst A S Kirolar. 
“Consumers are shying away from stocks and bonds and heading 
to safe assets like gold and real estate, but one cannot understand 
this given the meagre 12% growth in imports of petroleum and oil 
products.” Granted demand is not just at the retail level as ever 
more institutions are buying up gold: “Analysts maintained that 
India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to grant 
licenses to seven more banks to import bullion has helped push up 
demand. Karur Vysya Bank, State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur, 
State Bank of Hyderabad, Punjab and Sind Bank, 
South Indian Bank, State Bank of Mysore and 
State Bank of Travancore were added to the list. 
As of the start of 2011, some 30 banks in India have been 
granted permission to import gold and silver. Jewellers are getting 
easy supplies which is also helping push up demand. 
Moreover, the flow of scrap is also expected to fall from a yearly 
average of 200 tonnes, which could again boost imports, 
underlining the insatiable appetite of the Indian consumer.” 
Add ongoing Chinese demand for PMs, and one can see why 
calls for an imminent gold crash absent a global deflationary vortex 
are largely overblown.
                                                              -‘Mineweb’has more….

“Even as inflation and a widening trade deficit to $15 billion in May 
continues to weigh on the minds of Indian investors, the demand 
for fresh gold has continued to grow. This is very confusing, 
especially when one sees it against the backdrop of a 400% rise 
in the value of the rupee over the last decade,” said bullion analyst 
Anand Patnaik with a brokerage firm.

India’s commerce and industry minister Anand Sharma recently 
released trade figures. India’s imports have surged to a 4-year high 
at a scorching pace of 54% mainly due to rising oil prices and a 
surge in gold imports.

The country’s imports have jumped to $40.9 billion, which has 
resulted in the gap between imports and exports widening to 
$15 billion – a 67% increase which is the largest since August 2008, 
prompting the government authorities to caution that India’s trade 
deficit for 2011-12 could touch a record $145-150 billion.

Minister Sharma pointed out that exports of iron ore were down 
given the ban on exports imposed by the country. Imports in pearls 
and precious stones, however, have risen 24.6% to $ 5.20 billion, 
gold and silver by 222% to $ 13.5 billion and iron and steel by 
13% to $ 1.80 billion, he said.

But the true cause of this endless demand is and always will be 
the threat of central bank hijacked purchasing power :

“People in India have accepted high inflation as a reality of life,” 
said Rajesh Shukla of the centre for Macro Consumer Research. 
Noting that Indians tend to use gold as a hedge against inflation, 
Shukla said this would be partly responsible for the spike in imports.

He added that high imports reflected a strong demand for the yellow 
metal, despite the weakening of the rupee.

The Indian rupee fell to its lowest in three weeks on Monday 
weighed down by losses in domestic shares and the euro, with 
dollar demand from oil companies also adding pressure.

“Bidding from oil companies is keeping the rupee lower. 
All of last week, the rupee depreciated. Hiking of key interest 
rates has further weakened the rupee,” said a forex dealer at a 
national bank.

And that’s merely the anchor for current gold prices at over 
$1500 even as stocks continue to sink. Once the Fed announced 
Operation Twist 2 either on Wednesday, or in one or two month’s 
time, the PM complex will explode, reaching $2000 in no time 
whatsoever.


REAL ESTATE CoS SYSTEMATICALLY 
FUDGING LAND PRICE TO AVAIL 
BANK LOANS

Alarmed by inflated valuations of real estate properties for the 
purpose of loans, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has asked all 
banks to submit an action-taken report on the issue.

The matter was raised last week by RBI Governor D Subbarao 
during a meeting of the Board for Financial Supervision (BFS). 
After this, top RBI officials met representatives of the banking 
industry earlier this week. The regulator reminded bankers about 
the prudential norms on valuation of assets and asked them to 
follow these in both letter and spirit.

Sources close to the development said the sharp spurt in such 
cases pointed to a nexus between independent valuers appointed 
by banks and a section of real estate developers. “RBI has come 
across a high incidence of such frauds in recent times while 
reviewing the annual financial inspection reports of banks. 
As a result, the matter was taken up by BFS and the governor 
wanted the issue to be addressed on a priority basis,” said a 
banking industry official.

BFS was formed in 1994 in the wake of the Harshad Mehta scam. 
Its objective is to undertake consolidated supervision of the financial 
sector comprising commercial banks, financial institutions and 
non-banking finance companies. BFS, which meets once a month 
and discusses annual financial inspection reports and various issues 
related to the sector.

The sources said banks were “reminded” that valuation agencies 
indulging in such practices could be blacklisted. They were advised 
to share the names of the blacklisted agencies with each other.

Such frauds affect banks when they have to liquidate a property 
due to a loan default. During liquidation, it is often found that the 
value of the property is far less than what was mentioned when the 
loan was sanctioned. RBI has noticed frequent occurrence of such
incidents. 

Confirming the development, Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) CEO 
K Ramakrishnan said RBI discussed the issue with them. 
“IBA has shared RBI’s concerns with the member-banks. 
We have assured RBI that banks will exercise caution while 
evaluating assets.”

According to a note by Macquarie India, non-performing loans in 
the commercial real estate segment have increased from 1.6 per cent 
to 2.3 per cent in the past one year. The absolute level of such loans 
rose 70 per cent last year, particularly for state-owned banks.
In October, RBI raised the risk weightage on residential housing 
loans of Rs 75 lakh and above, to 125 per cent and capped the loan 
to value ratio at 80 per cent.



GUESSING OF TRADING
Trading is based on our 
hypothesis. In other words trading 
amounts to our educated 
guesses, which means the more 
you invest in your education, 
the more likely you are to find 
yourself on the right side of the 
trade. One of the most widely 
overlooked parts of trading 
education by traders is the 
study of past charts. 
I make personal videos, so that 
like a football team I can review 
my plays and create better 
strategies.
Your chart will tell you almost every thing you need to know to 
get on the right side of the trade. The one thing it doesn’t tell you 
is what is going on behind the scenes and it will even give you a 
hint to that most of the time. 
Your bullish/bearish ENGULFING patterns are evidence that 
there are some secrets that the market keeps to itself.
Mastering your candlestick psychology, your support/resistance,
and your trendlines are things that you want to major on and learn 
well. You may not win every trade, but having a firm foundation 
on these simple techniques can greatly increase your odds of a 
successful trade. I think the more simple your charts, the better 
and easier it is for you to enter a good trade.
Sometimes you will have the perfect trade set up and all of your 
analysis will be right and you will find yourself on the wrong side 
of the trade. No big deal, it happens to all of us, review that trade 
and see if you can identify the error. When you have reviewed it, 
look for the next trading opportunity.
There is NO PERFECT TRADING STRATEGY!!!!!!! 
This is only a guessing game for those of us who like to play 
the odds. The better your education, the better your odds 
will be against the house.



MESSAGE TODAY

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself--nameless, unreasoning, 
unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat
into advance.
                     -  FRANKLIN DELANO ROOSEVELT



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