FROM AN EXPERIENCE
1. Win through your actions, never through argument. (Don’t waste time convincing others on message boards how good or bad a stock is and/or telling people how smart you were because of good calls you’ve made in the past. Instead, trade the stock and make your profit. Talk will never pay your bills. Show others by demonstration, not by time wasting chatter.)
2. Infection: avoid the unhappy and unlucky. (This is right on the money. I couldn’t have said this better myself. Who you surround yourself with will ultimately determine your destiny. Marry for love, choose your friends carefully, and spend time with people who’ve been more successful and who are much smarter than you. Good and bad emotional states are as infectious as a disease.)
3. Learn to keep people dependent on you. (If you tell everyone everything you know, they’ll end up knowing more than you know. Having others dependent on you will also serve as great motivation, especially when times are tough and you need a reason to work harder than ever before.)
4. Win through your actions, never through argument. (At the end of the day, all that matters is that you make good trades or investment decisions. There’s lots of hype in this business and you should run, not walk, from anyone who spends more time talking than learning.)
5. Use selective honesty and generosity to disarm your victim.(Sorry, I’m not in agreement with this. In my view, you have to be honest with yourself and others at all times. In addition, generosity is always a good thing, especially when it is done without the desire of getting something in return. Having good Karma through generous acts also go a long way in keeping the trading gods on your side!)
6. When asking for help, appeal to people’s self-interest, never to their mercy or gratitude. (Sad, but true. If you can help others, they’ll be far more likely to help you. I know I always make a tremendous effort to help those who’ve helped me in the past.)
7. Pose as a friend, work as a spy. (You can find out more about people and companies you invest in by having friends who have specialized knowledge about certain industries. Their unique insight can be a powerful edge if you can get it. Sometimes a simple phone call or email to someone who works in the business will tell you much more than any chart or balance sheet.)
8. Crush your enemy totally. (When you’re right in a trade or investment and things are going well, don’t back off UNTIL you have good reason to sell.)
9. Use absence to increase respect and honor. (Knowing when not to trade is a skill few possess. Take vacations and breaks away from the market. It will only empower you to return refreshed, relaxed, and well-motivated. Remember, we trade to live, not live to trade. Achieving balance in your work and personal life will lay the foundation for long-term success.)
10. Keep others in suspended terror: cultivate an air of unpredictability. (It’s good to mix it up from time to time to relieve trading/investing boredom. If you think you’re in a rut, make some changes and go find something you can get excited about again.)
11. Do not build fortresses to protect yourself – isolation is dangerous. (Take time to bounce ideas off of people who are smarter than you. At all times, seek out opinions that are against you instead of with you – you’ll learn a great deal more. And, remember, no one is right all of the time. But some people are more right than others.)
12. Know who you’re dealing with – do not offend the wrong person. (As a small investor, it is best to avoid picking fights with market elephants (i.e. institutions, hedge funds) who think they know your stock better than you do. They have the power to move the market and your stock for longer than you have time or money to fight it.)
13. Do not commit to anyone. (Do not fall in love with any stock or trading system. No matter how great they are now, eventually all will find a way to disappoint you down the road.)
14. Play a sucker to catch a sucker – seem dumber than your mark. (We would all be better off to keep our mouths shut and to learn more. When you think you’ve got everything figured out, be careful. At all times, avoid the ever-present temptation to think that you’re smarter than the market.)
15. Use the surrender tactic: transform weakness into power.(Know your weaknesses and strengths and use both to your advantage by trading and investing in a way that maximizes your strengths while offsetting your weaknesses. As they saying goes, the market is a very expensive place to find out who you really are. Know what you’re good at and develop a strategy that takes advantage of it fully. Developing your trading niche is the key to long-term success.)
16. Concentrate your forces. (Over-diversification and redundancy in allocation is a recipe for underperformance.)
17. Play the perfect courtier. (You’ll learn more from people you treat well than the other way around. Being nice and treating others the way you want and expect to be treated even if they don’t deserve it is a good way to live.)
18. Re-create yourself. (Always work on new strategies. Stagnation, comfortability, and resting on your past success will not serve you well when, not if, the market changes.)
19. Keep your hands clean. (Do not engage in pump and dump situations, pyramid schemes, insider information, shady tax-avoidance methods, or anything that is illegal or just morally wrong. Eventually, all misdeeds will not be worth the price you’ll eventually have to pay.)
20. Play on people’s need to believe to create a cultlike following. (People need to believe the market will always go up and that every stock will work out “in the long run.” The truth is that your need to believe that things will always work out should never prevent you from making rational investment or trading decisions. Hope and faith has no place in your approach with the market)
(to be contd)
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK
On Friday within a minute it kissed (a flash of) 5000 level.
From 2:25 to 2:30PM generated volume is 49,75,050
Our ultimate target is 5070 within this expiry but a flash went below that(!!!!)
Just remember from the beginning of the month (APR 03) we have been shouting to SELL all the opportunities in NIFTY
Does that sound weird,eerie or creepy...?
Now you can imagine some White,Black,Gray Magic around our techniques-But precision behind is (the power of) charts and time.
By the way, we request all 'so called' friends, traders (calling and mocking behind some 'X identities') to trade and make some money in this business-Hiding behind some fakes and testing us from different locations neither help nor create any wealth for you-We pursue what we say and mention what what we did-Everything is very much blunt & outspoken in this space itself.
NOW WHAT NEXT...?
For sure no normal opening is going to happen today-We firmly
expect a gap down or a gap up opening-In that case gap will be filled within the session.
By the way, from Tuesday till the expiry (APR 26) Market will face an upward trend - Just wait and watch
Subscribe us for more interesting, mind-blowing predictions to make quick money in Indian stocks and NIFTY
TRADING NIFTY LEVELS FOR APRIL 23
Day’s Supports @ 5273-53-45-30
Day’s Resistance @ 5305-5318-5350
Strong Hurdles today @ 5305 & 5318 and to go into the bulls hands Nifty should trade above these levels atleast for 5 minutes to reach 5350-65
Suppose if trades below 5295 for 5 minutes see a sure slide upto
5274-57-47-31 is very much possible according to our
M I D technique
INTRADAY SELLING TIPS TODAY (APR 23)
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ADANIENT & RELCAP on rise
Last Week’s Market Round Up
Sensex closes at 17,373.8, up 1.63% on a weekly basis; Nifty closes at 5,290.8, up 1.60% on a weekly basis.
Reserve Bank of India
Rupee continued to trade extremely weak and has fallen to 52.1 levels making a 3 month low, on the back of multiple woes like FII selling and higher current account deficit.
The global market scenario is still weak with China ’s GDP growth for Q1CY12 slowing to 8.1% as against expectations of 8.9%.In Europe , Spanish bank borrowings from the ECB surged by about 50% to €227.6 billion in March as against €152.4 billion in February, in order to manage rising borrowing costs with 10-year bond yields rising close to 5.96%.
The highlights of the week amongst corporate results were HDFC Bank and HCL Tech. HDFC Bank’s Q4FY12 profits were up ~30% Y-o-Y to Rs. 14.53 bn (stock ended 4% up for the week). HCL Tech also reported good set of numbers for Q4FY12 with profits up 30.6% Y-o-Y to Rs. 5.8 bn. (stock ended 5.4% up for the week).
MARKET OUTLOOK
"Maintain positive stance on markets"
At the current level of 17,373.8, the Sensex trades at a PE of 15.7x FY12E earnings estimate and 13.6x FY13E earnings estimate.
At 13.6x, we trade below average valuations of 15.4x 1 year forward earnings.
Central banks in emerging markets are expected to support slowing growth through monetary easing, leading to a further fillip for growth and risk assets.
Results will continue to flow in thick and fast next week, major ones being
Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Sterlite and ICICI Bank.
With ease in liquidity and attractive valuations, we recommend investors to utilize this high volatility period to increase allocation in equities.
Sectoral Outlook
"Rate sensitives to do well"
As inflationary pressures have eased and RBI have started reducing repo rates and cash reserve ratio, we expect capex cycle to pick up and rate sensitives to do well going forward.
We would advice clients to play interest rate sensitives like Banks and Capital Goods (Yes Bank, City Union Bank and Larsen and Toubro) to capitalize on falling rates theme.
At the same time consumption and agri stories (GSK Consumer, Bajaj Auto and Coromondal Fertiliser) would continue to do well.
TRADING PROFITS IN RELATE TO TIME & ACCURACY
The size of profits of a trading system, is related to time and accuracy. They are inter-related and it is not possible to get the best out of all 3 factors in any trading system.
Before I elaborate further, I shall define what these 3 factors mean.
Size of profits – I am referring to the average amount of profits the system will earn per trade.
Time – The average length of time you held on to a trade.
Accuracy – The percentage that the system is correct and earns you a profit.
Big Profits = Long Time = Low Accuracy
For systems that aim for big profits, they must allow a greater range of fluctuations for the trade. By having a large trading range will in turn prevent you from getting stopped out so soon. Hence, you will be in a trade for a longer period of time. Besides having a larger profits, it will also serve you losses that are bigger, because your stop loss limit has to be further from your entry point. It is more difficult to grasp for the relationship with accuracy.
Small Profits = Short Time = High Accuracy
On the contrary, a highly accurate trading system allows you to be right most of the time but each time when you are right, you take very small profits. This is possible by making very tight stops in your trades such that you lock in profits as soon as you make them. Hence, you will be in and out of the trades very fast and frequently. This is typical to intraday trading or mean reversion models or even band trading.
Taking reference from Van Tharp’s book, “Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom“, I shall put forth 2 systems that have the characteristics mentioned above:
Long term trend following method belongs to the big profits, long holding time and low accuracy system. An 80-day channel breakout is a likely signal it will adopt. Profits are expected to be 10-12 times the amount that you are willing to lose. However, such opportunities are rare and the accuracy is about 28%. Which means you will lose most of the time and the trader must be able to manage his emotions during losing streaks and draw downs on his account.
For highly accurate system with low profits, the system is right at least 60% of the time. A volatility breakout is the likely buy/sell signal. The profit size is expected to be half of your potential lost. Hence, you will need to make enough trades to accumulate a sizable capital. The pitfall to look out for is the costs of trading (brokerage fees and spreads) due to the many transactions that the trader makes.
Therefore, if you want to be a trader, you have to find out your personality – are you one that is eager to wait for big profits once in a while and lose small amounts most of the time? Or are you more emotionally stable to be correct most of the time when you trade but each time you make only a small profit?
POSITIVES & NEGATIVES OF THE WEEK
Positives:
1) German IFO business confidence and ZEW investor economic confidence both point to a teflon economy right now in light of debt drama with their neighbors
2) Spain
3) UK
4) US Retail Sales in March broad based and above estimates but core figure ex auto’s, gasoline and building materials (thanks weather) were touch light
5) Housing construction permits rise to most since Sept ’08 led by multi family
6) Refi apps rise to 5 week high as mortgage rates drop near lows again
7) Brazil and India
Shanghai index closes at 5 week high on growing speculation of another RRR cut
9) Positive for Japanese exporters as yen weakens after BoJ deputy Gov says they will print all the yen it takes to get to 1% inflation.
Negatives:
1) While Spanish yields flat on week, CDS rises to record high, IBEX trades near lowest since Mar ’09, Italian 10 yr rises to just shy of highest since Feb, Italian and French CDS at most expensive since Jan
2) Initial Jobless Claims again surprises to upside, 4 week avg rises to most since Jan
3) Existing Home Sales, Starts and NAHB builder survey all below expectations
4) Purchase apps fall to 6 week low
5) NY and Philly mfr’g surveys fall but components mixed
6) Industrial Production flat m/o/m
7) China
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