FROM AN EXPERIENCE
Successful trading is not a by-product of making money. When you attach trading to money and money to emotions and emotions to money you’ll have taken your first loss but you won’t know it yet."
"Trading has everything to do with personal psychology, rules, systems, discipline, focus and skill. Like anything else that’s skill based, once you start it takes time and practice to become skilful.
Ultimately trading is about making decisions between two choices, to buy or sell. As simple as these two choices are the variables that effect the decisions surrounding them can be as complex as the human mind can make them."
"As a trader your central focus should be on your system. You should know your system inside out, its strengths and weaknesses. Your system should be comprised of a set of rules that ultimately guide you in making either of two decisions, to buy or sell. You should be able to read your system with respect to market conditions and base your trading choices on what your system is telling you."
"As a trader you must understand that you’re the weakest link in the system because the complexity will reside with you. Good systems are simple. They are nothing more than a series of instructions called trading rules. The primary thought that should be central in your mind is that it’s the system that makes the money, not you. The more skilled you become at reading market conditions and marrying these conditions to your system the better a trader you’ll be."
"Wealth creation is an uncertain activity for most people and, to do something without certainty of outcome, takes courage. It takes courage to do what the majority is not doing. It takes courage to overcome scepticism and cynicism. It takes courage to deal with fear and overcome fear barriers."
The goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. What accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful is psychological—the consistent winners think differently from everyone else.
The defining characteristic that separates the consistent winners from everyone else is this: The winners have attained a mind-set—a unique set of attitudes—that allows them to remain disciplined, focused,and, above all, confident in spite of the adverse conditions.
Those traders who have confidence in their own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful.
They no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them spot opportunities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.
You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money; anything can happen, and every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience.The trader that it’s his attitude and “state of mind” that determine his results.
(to be contd)
MARKET: OUTLOOK
- As expected Nifty opened the week on a negative note and made a low of 4531 on Tuesday. After taking support at 4531 nifty took bounce back sharply made a high of 4763. Finally Nifty closed above the physiological mark of 4700 with a gain of 1.34%on w-o-w basis.
As mentioned in our last weekly report
"Nifty has support in the range of 4640-4625, where 4640 is 52 week low, while 4625 is the lower band of the Bollinger on the weekly chart. Thus now going forward if Nifty starts trading below the above mentioned support range then we can witness further downside till 4538 and below that 4463"
As expected, Nifty opened the week on a negative note and broke the mentioned support range of 4640-4625 and further tested our first mentioned target of 4538 and further made a low of 4531.
On the weekly chart Nifty had already retraced 38.20% of the recent fall from 5099 to 4531. Oscillators are still trading in negative territory as well as Nifty continuously making lower top and lower bottom. Beside this directional oscillator ADX is still trading negative.
Thus above all observations clearly suggest that weakness still prevails in the markets and in the coming days if Nifty trading below 4525 levels then we can see further downside till 4463 and below those 4400 levels. However any ongoing bounce back should be used as an exit opportunity from the long positions.
In medium term Nifty has resistance at 4800 which is 21DEMA.
Intraday Break Outs and Targets of
Nifty Futures (DEC 26)
Almost a Gap up opening is expected – If opens above 4766, see
Almost a Gap up opening is expected – If opens above 4766, see
a hike upto 4826-37 & by the end of the session
In case of a Gap down opening below 4714 see a non-stop slide
In case of a Gap down opening below 4714 see a non-stop slide
upto 4685-31- but the chances are remote
Resistance today @ 4768
Supports today @ 4715-07 & 4685 & 4630
If cuts and trades below 4707 for 10 minutes 4685 & 4660
will be the downside targets…
On the other hand, no problem to kiss 4746 if NF trades for
On the other hand, no problem to kiss 4746 if NF trades for
15 minutes above 4715
Above 4747 for 5 minutes, means hike upto 4766 is possible
Above 4747 for 5 minutes, means hike upto 4766 is possible
Nifty should sustain above 4768 to go into the bulls hands anyway
SHARE TIPS TODAY (DEC 26)
1) Sell ALBK @ 120.10 and on every rise if goes above the level
Target – 117.75
1) Sell ALBK @ 120.10 and on every rise if goes above the level
Target – 117.75
Sell CESC, HSIL, RECLTD, VARUN on rise.
14 STAGES OF A TRADER
1. OPTIMISM – It all starts with a hunch or a positive outlook leading us to buy a stock.
2. EXCITEMENT – Things start moving our way and we get giddy inside. We start to anticipate and hope that a possible success story is in the making.
3. THRILL – The market continues to be favorable and we just can’t help but start to feel a little “Smart.” At this point we have complete confidence in our trading system.
4. EUPHORIA – This marks the point of maximum financial risk but also maximum financial gain. Our investments turn into quick and easy profits, so we begin to ignore the basic concept of risk. We now start trading anything that we can get our hands on to make a buck.
5. ANXIETY – Oh no – it’s turning around! The markets start to show their first signs of taking your “hard earned” gains back. But having never seen this happen, we still remain ultra greedy and think the long-term trend is higher.
6. DENIAL – The markets don’t turn as quickly as we had hoped. There must be something wrong we think to ourselves. Our “long-term” view now shortens to a near-term hope of an improvement.
7. FEAR – Reality sets in that we are not as smart as we once thought. Instead of being confident in our trading we become confused. At this point we should get out with a small profit and move on but we don’t for some stupid reason.
8. DESPERATION – All gains have been lost at this point. We had our chance to profit and missed it. Not knowing how to act, we attempt to do anything that will bring our positions back into the black.
9. PANIC – The most emotional period by far. We are clueless and helpless. At this stage we feel like we are at the mercy of the market and have absolutely no control.
10. CAPITULATION – We have reached our breaking point and sell our positions at any price. So long as we can get out of the market to avoid bigger losses we are content.
11. DESPONDENCY – After exiting the markets we do not want to buy stocks ever again. The markets are not for us and should be avoided like the plague. However, this rare point marks thepoint of maximum financial opportunity.
12. DEPRESSION – We drink, cry and/or pray. How could we have been so dumb we think to ourselves. Some start to correctly look back and analyze what went wrong. Real traders are born here, learning from past mistakes.
13. HOPE – We can still do this! Eventually we return come to the realization the market actually does have cycles (shocking). We begin to start analyzing new opportunities.
14. RELIEF – The markets are turning positive again and we see our prior investment come back around. We regain our faith (although small) in our ability to invest our money. The cycle start all over again!
INDIA MAY BORROW $9.5 BILLION PLEDGING ASSETS: OFFICIALS SAY
India plans to borrow as much as 500 billion rupees ($9.5 billion) using land and shares as collateral in an effort to narrow a budget deficit, two government officials with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The South Asian nation will set up a fund manager by Jan. 15 that will pledge stocks it holds in non-state companies including ITC Ltd., Axis Bank Ltd. and Larsen & Toubro Ltd., the officials said declining to be identified before a public announcement. The company will use the proceeds to buy the government’s stakes in state-run firms, the officials said.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is exploring options to bridge a widening budget deficit after raising just 3 percent of a 400 billion rupee asset-sale target for the year ending March 31. The decision may help the government utilize assets the officials said are valued at 1 trillion rupees and narrow the gap that’s fanned inflation and driven the rupee to a record low.
“The government is doing this to raise funds as the market isn’t conducive for asset sales, while they are hard pressed to meet deficit targets,” said Alex Mathews, head of research at Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Ltd.
Share Slump
A 23 percent drop in the benchmark Sensitive Index this year prompted Mukherjee to delay selling shares of Oil & Natural Gas Corp., Steel Authority of India Ltd. and Indian Oil Corp. He has raised 11.44 billion rupees from asset sales this fiscal year compared with 227.63 billion rupees in the 12 months through March, 2011, according to data provided by the Department of Disinvestment.
Mukherjee said in October that it would be a “challenge” to meet his aim of narrowing the budget gap to a four-year low of 4.6 percent of gross domestic product as slowing growth reduce tax collections. Moody’s Investors Service yesterday said the deficit will widen to 7.6 percent this year.
The yield on 10-year government bonds fell as much as 2 basis points at 3:26 p.m. in Mumbai, while the Sensex reversed losses and gained 0.8 percent. The rupee pared losses and traded at 52.66 a dollar, 0.3 percent weaker than yesterday’s close.
“There’s no doubt that this surprise move by India will help in meeting the deficit target and have a benign impact on sentiments,” said Gopal Agrawal, chief investment officer at a local unit of South Korea’s Mirae Asset Financial Group in Mumbai. “Everybody will be keenly watching how quickly and effectively the government works out the modalities.”
Transfer Assets
The new holding company will pledge the stakes and real- estate properties transferred to it from the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India, to state-run banks, the officials said. Specified Undertaking, formed in 2003, will be wound up within three weeks, the officials said.
Moody’s said yesterday that India’s public debt at 70 percent of gross domestic product is a constraint on the nation’s ratings, which are at the lowest investment grade. India’s $1.7 trillion economy expanded 6.9 percent in the three months through September, the slowest pace in more than two years.
The Reserve Bank of India has raised interest rates 13 times since the start of 2010 to lower the inflation rate that has stayed above 9 percent all of this year. In October Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has partly blamed the fiscal deficit for contributing to inflation.
WOW....CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS..?
BEYOND SKY IS THE LIMIT FOR SCIENCE..
There are now prototypes of machines which can read your mind for a wide variety of purposes.
Just have a look.........
Just have a look.........
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