BASED ON M I D TECHNIQUES

This is how our technique works - All these

settings, time frame, entry time and price etc etc will be taught in paid classes

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 3 DAYS CHART OF GOLD

HAVE A TREMENDOUS TUESDAY

IS YOUR PSYCHE READY FOR BULL MARKET?

The psychological hardwiring that helped us survive in primitive times also make us vulnerable to dangerous errors and biases when handling our investments in both bull and bear markets. Read on to learn about the catch phrases to watch for in a bull market, and some of the mental errors and biases they could signal.

"I know investment markets are going to pull back. I will put the money to work then."

When you hear a phrase like this, the investor could be suffering from "confirmation bias." Confirmation bias is a result of our brains trying to avoid cognitive dissonance, or having two conflicting thoughts. It occurs when investors filter out relevant evidence about their investments that contradicts their beliefs. With all of the information available about the direction of investment markets and the economy, it is easy to latch on to what you want to hear and filter out information that contradicts your past judgment. In a new bull market this bias can cause investors to ignore information that the economy and the financial markets are recovering. It would mean that they were wrong about their recent decision to sell or not buy certain investments. It can cause them to "sit on the sidelines" too long while investment opportunities pass them by. It is always good to think independently when investing, but make sure that you keep your ego in check and have an alternative plan if markets do not go your way.

"I finally had a profit, so I sold that investment."

There is nothing wrong with taking profits, but keep in mind that investors are constantly fearing regret and seeking pride. This is what is called the "disposition effect." It is a result of the pain of an investment loss hurting much worse than the pleasure of a gain. Academic research has shown that investment losses hurt about two and a half times more than the positive feeling you get from an equivalent investment gain. Net of taxes, whether you have a gain or a loss in an investment says absolutely nothing about its future prospects. In a new bull market this bias causes investors to sell winners too early (seeking pride). Also, the painful regret associated with taking losses can keep investors from selling past bear market losers to buy new bull market leaders. To help yourself avoid this bias, make sure that you have a process for buying and selling investments that is disciplined, fundamentally sound and repeatable. The bragging rights associated with quick gains are great, but the future profits you may miss could have been even better.

"The market has gone up too far and too fast. We are due for a market correction"

This phrase could signal what is known as "anchoring" or "reference point." Anchoring occurs when someone assigns a number, like a 52-week high or low, to compare the price of an investment. Most academics and investment professionals would agree that the stock market is at least weak form efficient, meaning that past price movements are poor predictors of future price performance. Long-term investing using past price patterns alone can be compared to driving your car forward while using your rearview mirror as a guide.

In a new bull market, anchoring can lead to "market acrophobia," where investors believe that because investment markets went up quickly from their lows they are due for a large correction. It can also give investors a false sense of value and lead to excessive risk taking in the initial stages of a bull market. Because investors have a tendency to believe that an investment is "cheap" or not as risky if it has already fallen a lot in price. Keep in mind that prices and investment fundamentals are constantly changing. Whether or not an investment has risen or fallen in the past tells you very little about its current fundamental valuation and long-term investment prospects today. (To learn more about the different levels of market efficiency and what they mean see Working through the Efficient Market Hypothesis.)

"I will never buy stocks again"

This phrase could signal the "snake bite effect." Snake bite effect occurs when investors take large losses in a certain asset class, like stocks, and become more risk adverse. The emotional toll from their past bear market losses can be so great that they feel the need to reduce exposure to the asset class or abandon it all together. It is important to think about your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and capital market expectations, and invest accordingly. In a new bull market this bias can lead to an under-diversified portfolio, or a portfolio that does not match the investor's objectives. It may stink, but if it meets your long- term investment goals sometimes you just have to hold your nose and buy.

Conclusion

Famed investor Benjamin Graham once said, "Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process." Mr. Graham knew that having control over your emotions when investing can mean the difference between success and failure.

It is important to understand that, because we are all humans and not computers; we will not always make perfectly rational and timely investment decisions. Knowing some of the catch phrases to look for and the mental errors and biases that they may signal can help you make more rational investment decisions and suppress your inner "Captain Caveman" when investing in a new bull market. (To continue learning about investor behavior read taking a Chance on Behavioral Finance and Understanding Investor Behavior.)

                                                                 - David Allison

NIFTY FUTURES UPDATES (OCT 21)

Nifty Futures, yesterday made a GAP UP opening, registered a 

high of  7932, slides upto 7882 and managed to close @ 7893

Today, if trades  below  7908 for 15 minutes see an intraday slide 

upto 7870-53-35

Suppose if cuts 7909 & trades above the level for 15 minutes,

See a sure hike upto 7930-45

INTRADAY RESISTANCES @   7910 – 31 – 46

INTRADAY SUPPORTS       @   7869-52 – 36

Now ‘a million dollar’ question before traders is

‘Which GAP is going to be filled at first?

A GAP DOWN formed on OCT 10 @ 7984

Or

THE GAP UP formed yesterday (OCT 20) @ 7814

Pls trade carefully with the mentioned time and levels

ALL THE BEST

 (By the time this post was updated S&P CNX Nifty Futures was 

trading @ 7919 )

இன்றைய சந்தை அடிப்படை (OCT 21)

இந்திய நேரப்படி இன்று காலை 6:00 மணிக்கு வெளியாகும் (ஆஸ்திரேலிய 

டாலரை பாதிக்கவல்ல) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes மற்றும் சீன காலாண்டு GDP 

(YoY & QoQ ) அறிக்கைகள், வருடாந்திர தொழிற்சாலை உற்பத்தி போன்ற 

தகவல்கள் சந்தையின் தொடக்கத்தில் பாதிப்பைக் கொண்டு வருமென 

தெரிகிறது!

தொடர்ந்து மாலை 7:30 மணிக்கு அமெரிக்க டாலர் குறியீட்டை நேரடியாக 

பாதிக்கவல்ல தகவல்களான (செப்டம்பர் மற்றும் மாதாந்திர) கையிருப்பு வீட்டு 

விற்பனை விவரங்கள்  இன்று சந்தையில் முக்கியத்துவம் வாய்ந்ததாகக் 

கருதப்படுகிறது!

இன்று தங்கம், கச்சாஎண்ணெய், இயற்கை எரிவாயு,

வெள்ளி மற்றும் காப்பர் அதில் கவனமாக செயல்படவேண்டிய நேரம்…

10:00 – 10:45 PM; 7:15 – 8:00 PM

வெல்க!

DISCLAIMER 

THE RECOMMENDATIONS MADE HERE DO NOT CONSTITUTE AND OFFER TO SELL OF A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY OF THE SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OF ANY OTHER INSTRUMENTS WHATSOEVER MENTIONED. NO REPRESENTATIONS CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED WILL BE PROFITABLE OF THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. READERS USING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS. SURFING OR USING ‘tradersharmony.blogspot.com' DEEMS THAT THE SURFER ACCEPTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THE DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES.THE INFORMATION PUBLISHED ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIVE PURPOSE ONLY AND THE USER/READERS SHOULD TAKE ADVICE OF HIS/HER ADVISER BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION FOR BUYING, SELLING OR OTHERWISE DEALING WITH SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OR ANY OTHER INSTRUMENT WHATSOEVER.

HAVE A MARVELOUS MONDAY

A Day in the Life of the Momentum Trader

A good way to illustrate momentum trading is to look at a typical day of a momentum trader: 

He gets up an hour before the market opens, switches on his computer, goes online and immediately logs into one of the popular trading chat rooms or message boards.

When looking at these boards, our hero focuses on stocks that are generating a significant amount of buzz. He looks at stocks that are the focus of trading alerts based on earnings or analyst recommendations. These are stocks rumored to be in play, and they are anticipated to provide the most significant price movements on high volume for that trading day.

While surfing the web, he will also turn on CNBC and listen for mentions of companies releasing news or positioned to undergo significant movement.

He eyes the morning equity options pages to find stocks with significant volume increases in calls. Any increase in calls written indicates that a price increase or decrease above or below the option premium is expected.

Once the market opens, he watches his initial list of stocks in relation to the rest of the market: Are his stocks going up when the market goes down? Are they significantly increasing in price in relation to the rest of the market? Are they behaving consistently with his expectations based on his pre-market assessment?

He will then narrow his watch list to include only the strongest stocks: those increasing more rapidly on higher volume than the rest of the market, stocks trading contrary to the market and stocks with movements clearly propelled by external factors.

Analyzing the Charts

Next, a momentum trader will analyze the list of stocks he has chosen to focus on by examining their charts. The primary technical indicator of interest is the momentum indicator - the accumulated net change of a stock's closing/ending price over a series of defined time periods. The momentum line is plotted as a tandem line to the price chart, and it displays a zero axis, with positive values indicating a sustained upward movement and negative values indicating a potentially sustained downward movement.

That upward or downward momentum indicator often immediately portrays a breakout for the stock, which means that even a period or two of sustained momentum will propel that stock in the direction of the breakout. While watching the momentum chart, he has his Level 2 screen up, looking for evidence of a push, where bids start to line up (indicated by the presence of market-maker limit orders) and offers start to disappear.

When the trader believes he has identified a breakout, he does not necessarily need to jump immediately into the stock. He is not generally worried about missing the first one or two breakout ticks, but he has his hand on the buy trigger (or sell trigger in the case of a short sale, but a short sale must be done on an uptick) for one of the next momentum periods. And he is generally not too concerned about hitting the bid either, as he will have an easier time getting in at the market price. Then he places a market order.

Momentum Trader: In Position

Once he has entered into his position, the white-knuckle ride and nail-biting begins. Will the stock continue to move strongly in the direction of his momentum line? Or will it immediately change course, proving the momentum chart wrong and perhaps pointing to a trap set by the market maker? Or will the breakout fizzle quickly, providing some limited upside but not enough profit to make the trade worthwhile?

Whether the momentum fizzles almost immediately or continues to build, the trader remains glued to his screen. He is looking for a saturation point, where orders start piling up on the offer and bidding slows or thins at the market price a few levels back on the Level 2 screen. The saturation point does not mean an immediate end to the momentum, but it may signal that the top is near. So the trader sells his position (or covers his position in the case of a short sale) and takes his profits to pack it in for the day or to move on to the next stock on his list.

NIFTY FUTURES UPDATES (OCT 20)

Nifty Futures, on Friday after having traded above the level of 7780 for 20 minutes, zoomed as predicted exactly upto 7843 and much more than that and managed to close @ 7814

Today if cuts and trades  below  7813 for 15 minutes see an intraday slide upto 7792-82

Suppose if cuts  7838 & trades above the level for 20 minutes,

See a rocket hike upto 7860-80 & 7900

INTRADAY RESISTANCES @   7862 – 82 & 7902

INTRADAY SUPPORTS   @   7790 – 80

Trade carefully with the time and levels

Beware of the GAP (DOWN) formed on OCT 10 yet to be filled upto 7984

ALL THE BEST

DISCLAIMER 

THE RECOMMENDATIONS MADE HERE DO NOT CONSTITUTE AND OFFER TO SELL OF A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY OF THE SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OF ANY OTHER INSTRUMENTS WHATSOEVER MENTIONED. NO REPRESENTATIONS CAN BE MADE THAT THE RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED WILL BE PROFITABLE OF THAT THEY WILL NOT RESULT IN LOSSES. READERS USING THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN ARE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR ACTIONS. SURFING OR USING ‘tradersharmony.blogspot.com' DEEMS THAT THE SURFER ACCEPTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THE DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES.THE INFORMATION PUBLISHED ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIVE PURPOSE ONLY AND THE USER/READERS SHOULD TAKE ADVICE OF HIS/HER ADVISER BEFORE TAKING ANY DECISION FOR BUYING, SELLING OR OTHERWISE DEALING WITH SECURITIES/COMMODITIES OR ANY OTHER INSTRUMENT WHATSOEVER.

WEEKLY REPORT FROM SHAREKHAN

Indices witness marginal losses in the truncated week Indian stock markets fell nearly 1% in the holiday shortened week led by mixed cues in the domestic and global markets Major Headlines for the week: WPI inflation for September 2014 declines to 2.38% Reliance Industries: first cut analysis of Q2FY2015 result TCS tanks 8% as September quarter misses expectations Axis Bank Q2 In-Line with estimates Indian indices:  Welcome to the 'Weekly Market Wrap' for October 17, 2014 where key benchmark indices declined on sustained selling by foreign funds. However, a steady decline in crude oil prices cushioned steep slide. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, regained the psychological 26,000 mark after declining below that level during the week. In the truncated trading week, key indices logged gains in two trading sessions and declined in other two trading sessions. Indian stocks registered declines for fourth straight week in the week ended Friday, 17 October 2014. In the week ended Friday, 17 October 2014, the 30-share S&P BSE Sensex fell 188.90 points or 0.71% to settle at 26,108.53. The 50-unit CNX Nifty points declined 80.30 points or 1.02% to settle at 7,779.70. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index fell 171.90 points or 1.82% to settle at 9,272.49. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index declined 297 points or 2.79% to settle at 10,313.97. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex. Weekly market trend from October 13 - October 17 October 13: Indian shares gained on Monday, as stocks of blue-chip companies recovered from recent losses, tracking positive cues from the European markets, while technology shares rose for a second day. The BSE Sensex and the CNX Nifty ended 0.33%-0.31% higher. The 30-share Sensex ended up 86 points at 26,384 and the 50-share Nifty ended up 24 points at 7,884. October 14: Indian shares edged down on Tuesday as DLF plunged after the market regulator banned it from tapping capital markets, although broader losses were capped as Reliance Industries gained after better-than-expected earnings and lenders rose on easing inflation. The BSE Sensex and the CNX Nifty ended 0.13%-0.26% lower. October 15: Indian markets were closed on Wednesday due to assembly elections in the western Maharashtra state. October 16: Indian shares fell for a second consecutive session on Thursday as companies seen most exposed to the global economy such as Hindalco Industries and Sesa Sterlite declined tracking a downturn in global markets. The 30-share Sensex ended down 349.99 points at 25999 and the 50-share Nifty fell by 115.80 points at 7748.20. October 17: Indian shares rose on Friday, led by gains in stocks of domestic oriented companies including lenders such as HDFC Bank on value buying and hopes a likely win for the BJP in two recent state elections would help push key reforms. The 30-share Sensex ended up 109 points at 26,109 and the 50-share Nifty closed 32 points up at 7,780. Global indices: Top Gainers: DAX 100 up 0.70% Top Losers: Nikkei down 5.02%, Shanghai Composite down 1.40% and CAC 40 down 0.99%. Sectoral and stock screening: Top Gainers: S&P BSE Bankex up 3.09% and S&P BSE PSU up 0.98% Top Loser: S&P BSE Realty down 10.2%, S&P BSE IT down 5.15% and S&P BSE TECk down 3.94%. Looking at the 'A' group stocks, the top three gainers of the week were - Den Networks up by 20.51%, BF Utilities up by 17.71% and Sintex Industries up by 12.33%. Top three losers of the week were - DLF down by 27.34%, CMC down by 16.10% and Rallis India down by 15.2%. FII/MF activity: The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been the net sellers of the Indian stocks to the tune of Rs2318.18 crore while the domestic investors bought Indian shares worth a net of Rs1259 crore as on October 16, 2014. TOP MOVERS (GROUP A)  Company Price (Rs) % chg Gainers Den Network 180.40 20.51 BF Utilities 643.90 17.71 Sintex Industries 81.55 12.33 Losers DLF 110.70 -27.34 CMC 1,872.65 -16.10 Rallis India 212.00 -15.20    FII/MF ACTIVITIES Rs (cr) FII MF Gross purchase 9,656.03 3,015.30 Gross sale 11,974.83 1,756.30 Net investment -2,318.80 1,259.00 *Data as on October 16, 2014

Market Outlook for the coming week!   In the coming week, trend in global markets, Q2 results of India Inc., results of assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate term trend on the bourses in the forthcoming truncated trading week. Stock market remains closed on Thursday, 23 October 2014 on account of Diwali Laxmi Pujan and again on Friday, 24 October 2014 on account of Diwali Balipratipada. However, the stock exchanges will conduct a special live trading session on Thursday, 23 October 2014, on account of Muhurat trading on Diwali. Trading will begin at 18:30 IST and will conclude on 19:30 IST on that day. Results of the assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana will be announced on Sunday, 19 October 2014. Various exit polls released after assemble elections held on 15 October 2014 showed that the BJP is set to wrest power from the Congress party in Haryana and will emerge as the single largest party in Maharashtra. BJP's strong showing in assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana could boost Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ability to carry forward legislative reforms. Among global economic data, China will publish third quarter GDP data on Tuesday, 21 October 2014. HSBC and Markit will announce a preliminary reading of their China manufacturing purchasing managers' index for October on Thursday, 23 October 2014. On the same day, Markit Flash Eurozone Composite PMI will be released. Focus will also be on Fourth Plenum, an annual meeting of China leaders which may offer clues about plans to address a slowing economy, to be held from October 20-23. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes a monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 28-29 October 2014.